STAR-BULLETIN FILE Heavy travel to Hawaii during Japan's Golden Week may be well past its peak, hurt by 9/11, the Iraq war, the Japanese economy and competition from other destinations.

Golden Week
losing luster

War, economy, even the
calendar, slow travel

Japan overseas travel expected to plunge

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By Tim Ruel
truel@starbulletin.com

Japan's historically popular Golden Week holiday is likely to be slow for Hawaii hotels and tourism companies, because of the war in Iraq, a continuing decline in popularity and a shorter holiday period this year for some people.

Some in the tourism industry believe Golden Week has lost its luster for good in the isles. The industry once looked forward to Golden Week as a time of packed hotels, strong sales and busy shops.

"Will it ever be as golden as it once was? Probably not," said Kelvin Bloom, president of Aston Hotels & Resorts. Japan's economy has long-term problems, which will haunt Hawaii after the war in Iraq is over, he said.

Japanese tourism in Hawaii this month and next month is down anywhere from 30 percent to 40 percent from 2002, according to hoteliers and wholesalers, and down as much as 50 percent from 2001. Japan Airlines said yesterday it is not restoring the daily Osaka-Honolulu flight it cut last month until July 14. JAL has also cut a Tokyo-Honolulu daily flight.

But there are other factors weighing down Golden Week, a collection of national holidays. In the past, Golden Week has lasted for as long as 10 days.

This year, Golden Week starts April 29, but for many people it may not start until May 3, a Saturday, because some companies won't let workers take extra days off. Since Golden Week ends May 5, a Monday, people who don't take vacation time will basically get a three-day weekend.

Golden Week also has a reputation for being an expensive time to travel, and the Japanese are shopping for better times to travel.

"This year is not good," said Hideaki Kembishi, president and chief executive of tour wholesaler Nippon Travel Agency Hawaii Inc. "Every year is just a little bit slower."

Another trend working against Golden Week is that it's popular for families to travel with their children and grandparents during the summer holiday season, Kembishi said. The summertime Obon festival remains popular, he said.

Waikiki, which relies on Japanese visitor arrivals more than the neighbor islands, is likely to be hit hardest by a slow holiday. At the 15 Aston hotels in Waikiki, 30 percent of guests are Japanese, Bloom said.

Bookings at the 1,230-room Hyatt Regency Waikiki are looking to be "strong" during the three-day weekend of May 3-5. But business in the days immediately before and after the weekend is down 30 percent to 40 percent, said Frank Lavey, general manager.

In the past, during a good Golden Week, occupancy at the 837-room Pacific Beach Hotel would be 90 percent and higher.

This year, occupancy will probably be 60 percent to 65 percent, said Grayce McCullough, director of sales and marketing.

"We're seeing that Golden Week is light," McCullough said.

The Pacific Beach fared better in early April because of an annual meeting of neurologists at the Hawaii Convention Center, and the 60th anniversary reunion of the 442nd Regimental Combat Team.

The neighbor islands would expect to do better, since many of their tourists come from the United States, and domestic visitor arrivals have held relatively steady during the war.

The 350-room Mauna Lani Bay Hotel & Bungalows on the Big Island typically gets 12 percent to 18 percent of its business from Japan. Occupancy is down slightly from past years, said Joan Palmtag, director of sales and marketing. She noted that room revenue has been hit because of discounting and value packages aimed at boosting travel during a rough economic time.

A silver lining for Japanese tourism in Hawaii is that people are booking their vacations at the last minute, which means arrivals have the potential to rebound quickly after the war, said Aston's Bloom. There could be stronger Japanese arrivals during the Obon festival later this year.

Said Hyatt's Lavey: "We're expecting it to rebound in June. Actually, we're praying."

Even then, Bloom said he believes Golden Week can never be as strong as it was. A few years ago, "the hotels were full. The shops were enjoying their highest sales. (Golden Week) is now becoming a blip on the radar screen," Bloom said.

The United States and Canada have better potential as long-term visitor markets, he said.

"I think that's what we need to focus on," Bloom said.

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JTB expects Japan
overseas travel to
plunge this spring

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Associated Press

TOKYO >> The number of Japanese traveling overseas during this year's spring holiday season will likely plunge 35.9 percent from last year due to the spread of a deadly flu-like illness and the war in Iraq, Japan's biggest travel agency said today.

The expected drop in travelers during Golden Week is the largest since JTB Corp. began its annual forecast of tourist traffic in 1969, said company spokeswoman Norie Kamiwada.

A total of 314,000 Japanese are expected to take trips abroad during the April 24-May 4 holiday, down from 490,000 last year, the survey said.

The JTB survey said travelers will avoid the United States, traditionally Japan's most popular tourist destination, due to concerns about terrorism during the war in Iraq. Visitors to the U.S. mainland will likely slide 49 percent while travelers to Hawaii are expected to fall 30 percent, the agency said.

Travelers to European destinations are expected to drop 25.8 percent during Golden Week, the agency said.

The number of travelers to Hong Kong, which has been hard hit by the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, will likely plunge 88 percent to 3,000, the JTB survey said.

Tourists headed to mainland China, another area badly affected by the illness, will likely slide 37 percent to 38,000, it said.

JTB surveyed 2,200 people nationwide for the survey in early March.