Fear factor
hurting travel
from Japan

The war in Iraq and SARS
are making for jittery Japanese

---

By Tim Ruel
truel@starbulletin.com

War jitters and the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, is leading to a fear-of-flying trend in Japan that is having repercussions on Hawaii tourism, businesses said today.

Between March 17 and March 27, major Japanese travel wholesaler JTB Hawaii had 3,800 groups cancel trips to Hawaii, primarily for travel this month and next. At the same time, 2,500 package tours were canceled, said Yujiro Kuwabara, general manager of tour planning and marketing for JTB.

In April, JTB Hawaii expects a cancellation rate of 550 people per week, Kuwabara said.

People are pushing back their trips, and the hope is that tourism will sharply recover in June, depending on the length of the war.

June looks better so far, with more new bookings than cancellations, but it's still early to gauge, Kuwabara said.

A likely victim of cancellations will be Japan's Golden Week holiday, which lasts from late April until May 5 this year.

Major travel wholesaler Jalpak said its Japan-Hawaii business is down 40 percent between April and June, which is similar to the drop that occurred during the 1991 Persian Gulf war. Major carrier Japan Airlines has said its Hawaii business is down 40 percent, prompting JAL to cut flights last week.

But demand for Hawaii and Oceania is doing better than the rest of Asia and Europe, said Ryokichi Tamaki, vice president of marketing for Jalpak International Hawaii Inc.

Hilton Hawaiian Village, Waikiki's largest hotel, said its mainland business is down 15 percent, with the worst drops in April and May, said Peter Schall, managing director.

Statewide, domestic visitors arrivals were down slightly from last year in the last two weeks of March, according to preliminary state data.

Business has been helped somewhat by conventions this month, including the 7,600 people here for an annual meeting of the American Academy of Neurology. Hilton's meetings, conventions and incentive travel business is down only 8 percent to 10 percent, primarily the result of low attendance, Schall said.

But visitor spending is down, hurting hotel revenues as well as retailers and high-end restaurants. "People shift more and more down to hamburger joints, food courts and those sorts of places," Schall said.

Hyatt Regency, Waikiki's fourth largest hotel, has a had a lot of short-term cancellations in April, with people delaying their trips until summer or later, said Frank Lavey, general manager.

Although April is traditionally a slow month, Hyatt's occupancy is expected to be in the low 60 percent category, which is 10 percent to 15 percent below historical levels, Lavey said. Booking pace for all markets has slowed, but could spike immediately after the war, he added.

"We're going to try to wait this out," Lavey said.