KEN IGE / KIGE@STARBULLETIN.COM
Hotel occupancy in February failed to improve over 2002, when figures were depressed by 9/11 fallout.
Tourism flat Hawaii visitor arrivals were flat in February, and arrivals from the state's largest source of tourists, the U.S. West, slipped to their lowest level since 1999, the result of uncertainty about the impending war in Iraq, the state reported today.
in run-up to war
The strong U.S. West market
began to weaken during FebruaryBy Tim Ruel
truel@starbulletin.comIn another sign of bad news for the tourism industry, arrivals from the U.S. East dropped to their lowest level since 1998.
A recovery last month in the number of Japanese visitors barely served to balance out the loss in mainland visitors, which make up roughly two-thirds of Hawaii's arrivals.
As a result, Hawaii hotel occupancy in February was largely unchanged from last year, which is not good for hotels, considering that February 2002 was depressed by effects from 9/11.
Some 501,260 visitors came to the isles in February, compared with 502,376 in the same period last year. Maui had a slight gain in visitors, while Kauai and the Big Island had a loss in visitors. Oahu arrivals were largely flat, meaning there was no recovery from the post-9/11 loss of visitors.
Statewide, Japanese visitor arrivals recovered a little from the dramatic losses caused by 9/11, giving February arrivals a slight year-over year boost.
A total of 120,488 Japanese visitors came here in February, up 9.1 percent from 110,484 in February 2002.
But last month's Japanese visitor count was down 18.3 percent from the 147,423 visitors that came in February 2001, before the 9/11 terrorist attacks.
Meanwhile, U.S. West visitor arrivals in February fell 4.1 percent to 171,124 visitors from 178,468 last year.
U.S. East arrivals fell even more, down 7.1 percent to 138,098 arrivals from 148,583 last year. Historically, the U.S. East was a major source of Hawaii tourists until the 1991 Persian Gulf war. In February 1990, Hawaii had 173,161 travelers from the U.S. East. In February 1991, that number dropped to 139,482. Arrivals from the U.S. East have dipped and soared ever since.
"The uncertainty of war has now halted the continuous growth in domestic arrivals that began in May 2002," said Ted Liu, director of the state Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism. "Looking forward, we might expect that visitor activities will slow during the next few months as the conflict plays out. In the long run, we believe that Hawaii's popularity and safe environment will attract visitors back to the islands."
Visitor arrivals have noticeably declined since the start of war last week, according to preliminary data from the state. Japanese arrivals in March are down 11.8 percent, and are getting worse.
Even before the war started, business was flat and bookings were headed downward.
Hotels and resort condominiums statewide were 80.5 percent full in February, on average, compared with 81 percent occupancy in February 2002 and 86.6 percent occupancy in February 2001, according to a new monthly survey by PKF-Hawaii.
"Much of the decrease was likely due to travelers rethinking their travel plans due to the threats of war with Iraq," said Ernest Watari, chief executive of PKF. In contrast, January occupancy had shown gains over last year.
Hotel room revenue was largely unchanged in February, so there was little recovery of revenue lost after the terrorist attacks.
Average revenue per available room across the state was $122.67 in February, compared with $120.44 last year, and down 12.7 percent from $140.58 in February 2001. Revenue per available room, known as room revenue, is considered a better financial indicator for the hotels than posted room rates.
Average hotel occupancy was down slightly on all neighbor islands.
Oahu hotels were slightly more full at 84.2 percent, compared with 83.4 percent occupancy last year. Oahu room revenue rose to $88.83 from $84.45 last year, and was down from $98.18 in February 2001.
On the Big Island, hotel occupancy fell to 73 percent in February from 76.4 percent last year, and from 85.8 percent in 2001. Room revenue was down 8.4 percent to $132.96 from $145.15 last year.
Maui hotel occupancy was unchanged at 81.7 percent, and room revenue rose to $181.23 from $173.66. But revenue was down from $195.82 in 2001.
Kauai occupancy and room revenue was largely unchanged from last year, with 74.2 percent occupancy and revenue of $110.28. But Kauai's performance was down from February 2001, when occupancy was at 79.8 percent and revenue was at $135.21.
PKF said there may be significant differences between the current war with Iraq and the 1991 Persian Gulf war, which caused a drop in Hawaii tourism and preceded a long-term state recession.
"While the location and the regime remains the same, the comparisons end there," PKF said. "The coalition force is without global support and facing other variables such as widespread protests and terrorism. Just how much of an affect the current war with Iraq has on Hawaii remains to be seen."
Since the start of the war, arrivals on Japan Airlines have fallen by 40 percent. JAL announced yesterday it is cutting one of its two daily Osaka-Honolulu flights and one of its three daily Tokyo-Honolulu flights.
Hawaii Visitors and Convention Bureau
PKF-Hawaii
