STAR-BULLETIN FILE / DECEMBER 2002 Estimates of bookings for travel to Hawaii in the next few months vary. Some, like Web site Travelocity, say reservations are up. But hotels like Marriott say travel looks soft.

Bookings mixed
for near future

Trips are likely to be up
by some estimates,
but down by others

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By Tim Ruel
truel@starbulletin.com

With war looming, the Hawaii tourism industry is seeing mixed signals for the next couple of months, with some good results and some bad.

Isle trips booked through online travel site Travelocity.com are up 43 percent in March, April and May from the same period last year. Amy Ziff, editor-at-large for Travelocity, said the bookings are a good indicator of a rise in spring travel.

Blue Sky Tours, a New Mexico travel agency that deals in trips to Hawaii, said its bookings are up in almost every month this year from last year, but the company has noticed a slowdown that started the middle of February.

"If it stays slow, then there will be a decline in departures," said Dennis Odom, co-founder of Blue Sky Tours, which is based in Albuquerque.

At Marriott International Inc. properties in Hawaii, February's performance was ahead of pre-9/11 levels, but March and April are soft, said Stan Brown, vice president of Marriott's Pacific Islands Regional Office.

Similarly, isle business for Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc. is looking soft in March.

January and February were ahead of last year, but down from before the attacks, said Keith Vieira, head of Starwood in Hawaii. Average room rates are up "minimally" from 2002, Vieira said.

Outrigger Hotels & Resorts is seeing an opposite trend. February was weak, but March is decent and April is booking better than April 2001, said David Carey, president and chief executive of Outrigger's parent firm.

Basically, it's hard to see a pattern, Carey said.

Another uncertainty is the potential for trip cancellations in the event of war with Iraq.

West Coast business appears to be strong, according to Pleasant Holidays, Hawaii's top tour operator.

This month's bookings are 5 percent to 10 percent ahead of last year, said spokesman Ken Phillips.

"There seems to be a traveler that wants to get their vacation done before the bombs drop," said Eric Gill, financial secretary-treasurer of hotel workers union Local 5.

Hawaii travel reservations from Japan are up by 69.1 percent in March from March 2002, according to a recent survey of five major Japanese travel agencies. Japanese visitor arrivals in March 2002 took an 18 percent hit from March 2001.