Isle businesses expect Hawaii businesses are increasingly optimistic about the state's economic prospects, but nearly half of those polled in a February survey don't expect any improvement during the remainder of this year.
more of the same
By Dave Segal
dsegal@starbulletin.com
Bank of Hawaii's semiannual mail survey, which received responses from 403 businesses, revealed that 27.1 percent of businesses anticipate improvement over the next year despite the threat of a U.S.-Iraq war. The result is up from 24.0 percent in August and 16.2 percent in January 2002.
But 47.4 percent of respondents said they expect economic activity to remain the same in the next 12 months. That figure is higher than the 46.0 percent in August expecting flat activity and the 32.3 percent in January 2002. In the latest survey, 25.5 percent expect negative growth over the next year.
"The recent survey seems to suggest that business owners view Hawaii's economy as being fairly resilient while understanding that current geopolitical uncertainties create risks for their companies," said Paul Brewbaker, Bank of Hawaii's chief economist. "This may be attributed to lessons learned from the gradual rebound in the local economy that occurred after the sudden, initial impact of Sept. 11."
Brewbaker said that since the last survey in August companies appear to be shifting toward a neutral posture regarding certain aspects of their businesses, such as capital expenditures and sales.
In response to specific questions about their businesses, 49.5 percent anticipate capital expenditures to stay level and 38.8 percent expect sales to remain flat.
Both numbers are increases over the August survey. In addition, 60.7 percent of businesses expect employment to remain the same, down from 62.1 percent in August.
Slightly more than 42 percent said they expect higher sales, compared with 19 percent anticipating lower sales; 28.0 percent expect higher capital spending compared with 22.4 percent anticipating lower capital expenditures; and 20.7 percent expect higher employment compared with 18.6 percent anticipating lower employment.
Bank of Hawaii