[ OUR OPINION ]
With the economy,
hope springs eternalTHE saying goes that if anyone wants lots of company, they should stand among those who have been wrong about forecasting the economy. That aside, people who bank their livelihoods on predicting where Hawaii's financial fortunes are headed have been increasingly optimistic recently, regardless of the cynical view that we've been down so long that anything will look like up.
THE ISSUE Hawaii economists see recovery on the horizon.
The latest rosy outlook comes from the University of Hawaii where research economists see the housing and construction segments as fueling Hawaii's economy while its main engine, tourism, remains in low gear. Carl Bonham and Byron Gangnes, reporting for the UH Economic Research Organization this month, say growth is evident in the robust real estate market. With mortgage rates at 30-year lows, people are buying houses, increasing profits for banks and mortgage brokers, which, in turn, pipes more money to consumers to spend. They also point to boosts in building permits as another indication of better times ahead.
Consumers appear to be the "go-to" guys for keeping the economy up and running, which one expert, Mark Kawakami of ING Advisors Network, says is fine, but can only last so long. If businesses that have been cutting expenses and payrolls don't soon return capital to the marketplace and create new jobs, steady growth will not materialize.
Bonham and Gangnes' report casts a spotlight on this element with their explanation of the state's deceptively healthy-looking 4 percent unemployment rate in October. They contend the rate disguises the fact that Hawaii has seen no net gains in employment. Indeed, state labor figures show that in October, there were 567,800 residents with jobs, but in October 2001, 575,500 people were working. They also point out that few of the thousands of tourism-related jobs lost after Sept. 11 have returned.
Nationally, the economic news has been mixed, however, last week's report that the unemployment rate zoomed to 6 percent in November -- the highest level in nearly nine years -- put a damper on the holiday season. The report came on the same day that two members of President Bush's economic team -- Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill and Lawrence Lindsey, director of the National Economic Council -- found themselves without jobs. Bush has been keenly aware of criticism that his administration has been unfocused on economic issues.
So it's safe to say that the tottering economy remains worrisome from Pennsylvania Avenue to Beretania Street. Beyond that, who knows; we'll assess it one day and one economic report at a time.
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OK to nix Navigator,
but not bodyguardsNO one can fault Governor Lingle for rejecting one of the perks of her new job -- the macho Lincoln Navigator that once transported her predecessor on official business. In fact, she should be commended for idling the black, 2-ton, Darth Vader-like SUV.
THE ISSUE The new governor declines a used car and has to adjust to having protective personnel.
The gas-guzzler not only clashes with her simple style, it clashes with the environment and frugality, getting a mere 12 miles per gallon. Taxpayers will certainly appreciate fewer payments at the pump. No offense to Navigator fans and owners, but the huge thing is too much car for jaunts around town and she should be able to find something more suitable.
However, Lingle should make use of other services provided her -- bodyguards and a driver. As governor, she is vulnerable to the disgruntled, the overly curious and out-and-out scofflaws and she has a duty to keep herself away from harm.
Like it or not, being a public official has boundaries. Time alone becomes rare and privacy all but disappears. Although she dealt with recent revelations about mammograms and biopsies with humor and aplomb, Lingle should expect that every breath she takes, every move she makes will be watched and discussed.
The public and news organizations should exercise a measure of restraint. Nevertheless, almost every aspect of a governor's life becomes important to constituents.
As for the driver, Lingle should be pleased that she won't have to jockey for parking spaces or have to keep quarters handy to feed the meter. If not already so, time will become too short for her to cruise the parking garage for a slot. As much as she'd like to remain so, she's not ordinary people, not anymore.
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Published by Oahu Publications Inc., a subsidiary of Black Press.Don Kendall, Publisher
Frank Bridgewater, Editor 529-4791; fbridgewater@starbulletin.com
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Lucy Young-Oda, Assistant Editor 529-4762; lyoungoda@starbulletin.comMary Poole, Editorial Page Editor, 529-4748; mpoole@starbulletin.com
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