Pacific Perspective
Pacific Perspective
Terrorism and the
politics of tourismHANOI, Vietnam >> The bombing that killed more than 190 people in Bali Oct. 12 certainly hasn't been treated as good news in Vietnam, but there have been plenty of comments in the local press and conversations that suggest what might be counted a "silver lining."
As tourists run from Indonesia and cancel plans to visit Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand; Vietnam is advertising the safety and tranquility of this ancient but authoritarian state. The marvelous sites of this historic empire, and those of related kingdoms of Annam, Tonkin and Champa, remain off the beaten track for most tourists who have looked for monuments combined with modern hotels, food from home and sandy white beaches.
But the attack in Bali has turned the world of travel and tourism in Southeast Asia upside down.
Bali had always been an island of tourist tranquility in Indonesia. Its history dates to the powerful Madjapahit empire that existed from 1100 to 1500 on eastern Java and the adjacent islands. The Madjapahit political dynasty traced its origins to the Indian Hindu polities that led to the development of all Southeast Asian states except Vietnam. Most of Madjapahit was eventually subjugated to the expanding Islamic empires that followed the founding of Malacca in 1400, but Bali escaped with its Hindu culture in tact.
It is that Hindu culture that has made Bali the most attractive vacation site in the region for the last half century. The more permissive atmosphere of Hinduism allowed sunbathing, partying and general relaxing by Australians, Europeans and Americans that didn't fit the local culture in the rest of Islamic Indonesia. The hotels and resorts of Bali have been bringing hundreds of millions of dollars steadily into foreign currency-starved Indonesia for decades.
The bombing in Bali killed many Australians and other tourists in a tactical hit, but it was really a strategic strike at the heart of Indonesia and the region. It reflected a desire on the part of many fundamentalist Muslims to quell the constant intrusion of Western influences into the country and incidentally served to send a message to the Hindu population of the island. Where Bali's domestic population gained from the interaction with the flow of tourism, now there has been a leveling to the least common denominator.
Jakarta's Center for Labor and Development estimates that 150,000 tourism-related jobs will be lost on Bali and close to a million in Indonesia as a whole.
As another cost of the bombing, travel for business also has suffered. The travel warnings have led to the departure of families of expatriates and will probably lead to the departure of Western expat managers and the investments they represent. Bali garment makers are concerned that buyers will not arrive as scheduled in December to place orders for 2003. If that industry falls, employment could greatly diminish in an industry that employs an eighth of the island's population.
The bombing was a powerful message across the region. Those countries with fundamentalist and radical Islamic populations -- whether in large numbers or small minorities -- are now deemed physically vulnerable to attacks on Westerners. These states include Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Brunei, Singapore and the Philippines.
The United States, Australia and Britain have issued warnings to their citizens about visiting these countries, and if they do, about avoiding groups and some locations.
There have been sufficient departures and trip cancellations that the recent meeting of the heads of state of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations began with a focus on the devastating effect the drop in tourism revenue is having. The two-day summit of the 10 heads of state resulted in pledges of further cooperation among law-enforcement bodies to protect both visitors and investors and the establishment of an anti-terrorism center to be located in Malaysia.
But these measures are probably too late.
The lessons of the Bali explosions for the tourism industry have compounded those already provided by attacks -- by Islamic radicals -- on tourists at Luxor and other sites in Egypt, in Algeria, in Sabah in Malaysia and in the southern Philippines.
The lessons are, first, that Western tourists are viable targets for terrorists. Second, that the danger is global. No country or location is immune. Third, that Islamic populations are the source of active terrorism. While the war on terrorism may not be a war against Islam, there is a very high correlation between attacks on tourists and instigation by Islamic terrorists, rather than Hindu, Buddhist or Christian. No amount of political correctness can disguise this evident fact from tourists, tour organizers and insurance companies.
As a corollary to that, fourth, culturally diverse societies -- if one of the subcultures is Muslim -- are likely to be hotspots for Western tourists. This is critical to the tourism industry since the culturally diverse destinations have been the most interesting ones. Fifth, that open societies that allow unrestricted internal travel are more vulnerable to terrorist attacks than others.
Hence, the strength of the tourism case for countries like Vietnam that have tight controls over both the practice of religion and travel into and within the country. There is a small Muslim population in Vietnam but all religions in Vietnam function under a restrictive official institution sanctioned by the central government.
As the tourism industry suffers through the reaction to danger and deaths, the fear factor infects other industries as well. Nike has confirmed plans to shift most of its shoe production lines from Indonesia to Vietnam, according to the November issue of Fortune. Businesses that have no portability, such as Exxon Mobile in northern Sumatra and Freeport McMoran Copper and Gold in West Papua at the other end of Indonesia, have had to step up security, adding considerable cost to their extraction products and, ultimately, reducing income for the countries in which they are operating.
It's the ultimate irony. Those who have argued that the wave of terrorism over the last decade has its roots in poverty and economic disparity now see a far greater negative impact of terrorist actions on those societies than elsewhere. Tourism is Indonesia's third largest industry after oil and textiles. It generated nearly $5.5 billion last year.
J. P. Morgan forecasts that up to $3 billion in Indonesia tourism revenues will be lost in the year following the Bali attack, according to the November issue of Fortune, and 2003 economic growth will be cut by 0.8 percent, a loss that poverty-stricken Indonesia cannot afford.
The attacks on tourists have become as much of an attack on the societies that host them as on the Western visitors themselves.
Moreover, the countries that will benefit from the attacks -- both in tourist revenues and in direct investment -- are repressive societies that control their religions and their populations.
In this very odd twist, what were the risks of the recent past have now become very attractive alternatives in a world filled with danger, but one that is also seeing an exponential growth in both interest and financial capability on the part of would be sightseers and students of the human condition.
Llewellyn D. Howell is senior research fellow at the University of Hawaii at Manoa College of Business Administration's Asia Pacific Country Risk Institute. He is also international affairs editor for USA Today Magazine.