Holidays, sports Christmas shopping and University of Hawaii football may sack the balloting in next month's special election to fill the remaining term of the late U.S. Rep. Patsy Mink, election experts warn.
may hurt special vote
The first such election coincides with
a UH football game and ThanksgivingBy Crystal Kua
ckua@starbulletin.comPost-holiday activities also may affect a special election Jan. 4 if Mink is returned to office posthumously, the mainland observers say.
The first special election, which will fill the remaining month of Mink's current term in the 2nd Congressional District, is on Saturday, Nov. 30. That falls during the long Thanksgiving holiday weekend, which is typically known as the busiest shopping weekend of the year.
That Saturday also features a nationally televised football game between UH and the University of Alabama at Aloha Stadium. The game starts at 3:05 p.m.
Daniel Shea, director of the Center for Political Participation at Allegheny College in Pennsylvania, said he has seen voter turnout in special elections go both ways, depending on how much interest there is in the race and the competitiveness of the race.
"I'm trying to remain optimistic, but the event on the Saturday after Thanksgiving, I've got to tell you, my gut tells me that fans of high turnout might be disappointed," Shea said.
"The Saturday thing would work, generally speaking, but the Saturday after Thanksgiving -- if Hawaii is like northwest Pennsylvania, then there's a lot going on. It's just a busy weekend."
On the other hand, Shea said, it could help that families are out and about on the day of the special election. "Why not make another stop at the voting booth?" he said.
If Mink wins the Nov. 5 general election, voters in rural Oahu and the neighbor islands will have to go back to the polls for a second special election on Jan. 4, the weekend following New Year's.
"There is no question that turnout will be very low, but the primary reason will not be because the elections are being held right after the holidays," said Jeffrey Berry, a political-science professor at Tufts University in Massachusetts whose expertise includes citizen participation. "Rather, it's because they are special elections. Since special elections involve only one race, there are typically less overall resources devoted to mobilization and advertising."
Berry explained that during election years when there is no presidential race, like this year, congressional voter turnout is about 20 percent less than in presidential-election years.
"In a special election, you're going to drop down quite a bit more," he said. "By the time you get to that issue of the holiday, the number of people who are going to vote are already pretty small."
Berry said turnout can be spurred in multiple-race elections, like the upcoming general election, by candidates trying to get the vote out.
"You have a lot of different offices up -- you have a very interesting governor's race there in Hawaii -- and so you have a lot of campaigns trying to get voters out," Berry said.
Shea and Berry said that those interested in increasing voter participation point to Saturday elections as one solution.
"People have more hours in the day to devote to discretionary activities, and voting is certainly a discretionary activity," Berry said.
But elections officials here point to September's primary election -- held on a Saturday -- which had the second-lowest voter turnout ever for a primary at 41 percent. A much-hyped double-header high school football game featuring Kahuku High School and St. Louis School against top-ranked mainland teams was held that day.
The last congressional special election was held in 1990, when Mink won the seat she held until she died Sept. 28 of viral pneumonia. About 149,000 people -- 65 percent of registered voters -- voted in that special election, but it was held in held in conjunction with the primary election.
On Jan. 26, a Saturday, Ann Kobayashi won a special election to fill the City Council seat vacated by Andy Mirikitani, who was sentenced to federal prison for extortion. The turnout was 27.5 percent.
Both Berry and Shea said the Jan. 4 special election could have the potential for a higher voter turnout because it could be on the national radar in the role it could play in the control of Congress.
Berry said that if Democrats or Republicans fall two or three seats short, "that seat in Hawaii becomes all the more important because that could bring them one down or two down, instead of where they are."
"If that's the case, then the Hawaii special election's going to take on an added meaning," Shea said. "There's going to be national interest, and I can imagine a great deal of campaign expenditures. It's going to be a hot race, and turnout will increase."
Money is something local elections officials say they have very little of to advertise the elections.
"We'll hold the election, but it really would be up to the people to make the decision whether or not they want to participate in the special election," said Rex Quidilla, spokesman for the state Elections Office.
