The Rising East
Is Bush practicing
art of misdirection?In China 2,500 years ago, the great military strategist Sun Tzu wrote "The Art of War" in which he laid down principles that have withstood the tests of time and are surely pertinent today as President Bush contemplates an attack on Iraq.
Sun Tzu said: "To fight and conquer in all your battles is not the supreme excellence; the supreme excellence consists of breaking the enemy's resistance without fighting."
Then, in order, Sun Tzu said the highest form of generalship is to balk (deter) the enemy's plans; the next best is to isolate him from his allies; and the next is to attack the enemy's army in the field. The worst tactic, and one relevant to an American assault on Iraq, would be to besiege a walled city.
Baghdad is not like a walled city in ancient China but the cost in blood and treasure of laying siege to it, the most likely consequence of a U.S. invasion of Iraq, could be disastrous if Sun Tzu is right.
"Therefore," the Chinese strategist concluded, "the skillful leader subdues the enemy's troops without fighting; he captures their cities without laying siege to them; he overthrows their kingdom without lengthy operations in the field."
All of which leads to an intriguing question: Is George Bush really planning to go to war with Saddam Hussein, the Iraqi dictator, or is everything seen in recent months part of an elaborate strategy of psychological warfare intended to defeat Saddam without firing a shot?
Put another way, is Bush more clever than his critics give him credit for being?
Consider the twists and turns of Bush's maneuvers and how they might have played inside Saddam's head. Initially, the president says he has the legal authority to attack Iraq, then decides he needs the political support of Congress. He suggests the United States will go it alone, then chooses to get backing from the United Nations.
Among the shifting objectives of the campaign against Saddam have been "regime change," which means he has to go; disarmament, or stripping Iraq of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons of mass destruction; or democracy and nation-building, with a seven-year occupation and an American proconsul like that in Japan with Gen. Douglas MacArthur after World War II.
The leakage of operational plans for a war against Iraq has been a veritable torrent -- and could only have happened if the leaks were deliberate because little in the Pentagon is so tightly held as a war plan.
Similarly, the Central Intelligence Agency has just published a detailed report, complete with maps and satellite or aerial photographs, of Saddam's nuclear, missile, chemical and biological sites, all intended to show him that the United States knows what he's got and where it is.
Several headquarters units to control operations have been ordered to the Persian Gulf amid considerable fanfare; usually this is done quietly. At the same time, the number of reservists on active duty has been steadily declining, from 81,740 in May to 59,000 last week. Preparing for war means mobilizing reservists, not sending them home.
President Bush himself has been a leading warrior in the psychological operations, especially with his doctrine of pre-emptive strikes that would have the United States hit an adversary before absorbing an assault. While the doctrine has been around since Washington crossed the Delaware to slaughter Hessian mercenaries in the Revolution, Bush has played it up for its intended effect on Saddam.
Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld has been Bush's faithful lieutenant, publishing his views on early strikes, appearing on television news shows and showing up in the Pentagon press room more than any secretary in living memory to roll the drums against Iraq.
Among the messages emanating from the Pentagon have been appeals to Iraqi generals to foil Saddam, to soldiers manning anti-aircraft missile batteries to desert, and to the Iraqi people to withdraw their support from Saddam.
"We want to send a very clear message to the Iraqi people," said Assistant Secretary Victoria Clarke, "that this is not about them."
How effective this has been is open to question. Saddam, paranoid though he might be, is no slouch as a psychological warrior.
Moreover, with the law of unintended consequences at work, Bush's campaign may have only confused the American people and U.S. allies abroad.
Richard Halloran is a former correspondent
for The New York Times in Asia and a former editorial
director of the Star-Bulletin. His column appears Sundays.
He can be reached by e-mail at rhalloran@starbulletin.com