The Indonesian government's announcement that it believes al-Qaida is involved in the bombing that killed more than 180 people in a Bali nightclub is a sign the Southeast Asian country may finally become engaged in the war against terrorism, according to an East-West Center analyst. Isle-based analyst heartened by
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By David Briscoe
Associated PressRichard Baker, a senior fellow at the center, also said Australia was a more likely target of the bombing than America because the area hit by the bomb was frequented by Australians.
The Indonesian government yesterday admitted for the first time that al-Qaida is active in the island country, saying it had hooked up with local terrorist groups in the bombing. Until now, the government insisted Muslim extremists pose no threat in Indonesia.
"Welcome to the fight," said Baker, citing what he said are indications the Indonesian government is taking the investigation of the bombing very seriously.
"Against the background that Indonesian officials have been reluctant to acknowledge the possible presence of al-Qaida in Indonesia, these statements are a good sign of the willingness to follow this trail wherever it may lead," Baker said yesterday.
He said the investigation involves sensitive issues for the government of President Megawati Sukarnoputri, who faces growing demands to arrest high-profile suspects but also faces the danger of provoking Islamic radicals.
Baker noted that intelligence from Malaysia and Singapore has suggested that Abu Bakar Bashir, head of the radical Islamic group Jemaah Islamiyah, is connected to al-Qaida. Until now, Indonesian officials have said they have seen no evidence to support this.
Abu Bakar Bashir has threatened to unleash his followers and declare holy war if the government goes after him, said Baker, who worked in Indonesia as a U.S. diplomat.
He said Australia was a more likely target than America in the bombing because Australians flock to Bali year-round.
"It's the Australian Caribbean," he said. "If your target was Americans, that's not what you'd blow up."
Australia has strongly supported the U.S. war on terrorism and U.S. talk of invading Iraq, he noted. Australia also led international peacekeeping forces into East Timor, where the Indonesian military staged a bloody crackdown after East Timorese voted for independence.
Baker suggested four possible elements that might be involved with al-Qaida: local Islamic groups, Indonesian nationalists angry over East Timor, rogue military elements, or political groups that simply want to humiliate the Megawati government to strengthen their own position.
"With a beleaguered Megawati government fighting to handle the economy and internal security and to rebuild it's relations with its partner countries, this is a devastating event for the government," Baker said.
"The problem is there are so many forces involved with so many different agendas, it's unlikely we will ever know the full story," he said.
The East-West Center is an independent research institution established by Congress to strengthen understanding and relations between the United States and the countries of the Asia-Pacific region.
