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The race for governor:
Change vs. status quoA NEWSPAPER poll that gathered responses between Aug. 30 and Sept. 3 indicated Mazie Hirono would get 43 percent of the vote, Ed Case 23 percent and Andy Anderson 18.
On election day, Hirono slipped to 41 percent, Case surged to 40 percent and Anderson held at 18. In other words, Ed Case won virtually the entire undecided vote.
The Case campaign claim that support was surging in the days just before the election was easy to dismiss as rhetoric. However, late endorsements from environmentalists, small-business groups and both Honolulu newspapers showed that, when the time came to choose, the best case could be made for Ed.
Even U.S. Sen. Dan Inouye was leaning his way.
How does a relatively unknown legislator from Manoa come within a whisker of beating an incumbent lieutenant governor? Case built a campaign on substance, positions on issues, a blueprint for change and a willingness to lead.
If you haven't, take a look at www.edcase.com. He may have swung his support to the Hirono-Matsunaga Democratic ticket, but as of yesterday, the Case for Governor primary election platform was still online.
Look fast because Case's message to voters is likely to change. "The central issue in this election," he wrote, "is not whether we must change, but what must change and how and who can best lead the way. My primary opponents will talk about change because their polls tell them that's what voters want. ... (They) represent government and politics as it has been.
"We represent government and politics as it can be. They represent the past. We represent the future." That future will be delayed, however, because 41 percent of 41 percent of eligible voters who cast ballots in the primary election chose Hirono -- a mere 11.5 percent of those registered.
IT WAS after midnight, after the returns were in and every possibility of victory was gone, when Ed Case finally showed up at Mazie Hirono's campaign headquarters to concede.
He was in no hurry, enjoying the moment, the exhilaration of the chase. He made time for every reporter, every on-air interview. He'd come so far and closed so fast -- just 2,603 votes short of victory. He was no longer "Ed who?" His excitement and pride were palpable -- there was no quit in this dog.
Case's "concession" was a lively, upbeat speech thanking his supporters, congratulating the victor and accurately claiming that his near victory was a mandate for change. Combined, Case and Linda Lingle polled almost 145,000 votes, while Hirono and Andy Anderson, the Republican-turned-Democratic candidate, together got 110,000.
Some claim many Lingle backers crossed over to vote for Hirono, figuring she'd be easier for Lingle to beat. Others say Lingle-backers voted for Case to ensure either eventual winner would be an catalyst for change. Still others say Anderson was persuaded to run just to split the vote and guarantee a Hirono victory, as Frank Fasi did in 1998, enabling Cayetano to beat Lingle.
Early Sunday morning, Case was a tough act to follow. Hirono stepped to the microphone, thanked her campaign workers and introduced her family: her older brother, her husband, her mother and mother-in-law.
It was a symbolic moment. Blame it on the camera angle. With her gray-haired relatives lined up behind her, Hirono gestured to her supporters on the stage and dubbed them a new generation of Democrats.
The generals are chosen, the battle lines are forming. The objective will be to capture the Case primary vote. Will Case Democrats sacrifice change rather than vote Republican?
The 2002 Lingle is kinder and gentler, moving toward the center, softening her stands on cutting government and privatization from those we remember from 1998. Will those who backed Case -- the tough-minded, pro-business, budget-cutting reformer -- back today's Lingle?
John Flanagan is the Star-Bulletin's contributing editor.
He can be reached at: jflanagan@starbulletin.com.
