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Hurricane cycle
could be broken
this year



By B.J. Reyes
Associated Press

LIHUE >> It was 20 years ago when Hurricane Iwa slammed into Kauai, killing two people and causing $250 million in damage.

Ten years later, a much stronger Hurricane Iniki made a direct hit on Kauai with winds of up to 150 mph, causing an estimated $3 billion in destruction. Five people died during the storm and cleanup efforts.

It doesn't take a numerologist to figure the next year in the series: 1982, 1992 ... Could 2002 follow the trend?

Meteorologists, however, consider the danger of Pacific hurricanes significant every year. And there is no reason to believe that Kauai would be a more likely storm target than any other Hawaiian island.

The central Pacific averages about four to five tropical cyclone systems a year, though forecasters have predicted six to seven this year because 2002 -- like 1982 and 1992 -- is an El Nino year.

To date, two tropical systems have originated in the central Pacific. Neither Tropical Storm Alika nor Hurricane Ele threatened Hawaii.

"So far, so good," said Chris Cook, who in 1992 was a tourism specialist for the Kauai County Department of Economic Development. "I think people will feel we broke a cycle if there's no hurricane this year."

The Pacific hurricane season begins in June and runs through November, though storms sometimes appear later in El Nino years, said Tom Heffner, a warning coordination meteorologist at the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu.

"A one-to-one correlation can't be made from those seasons," he said. "They did occur during strong El Nino years, but this is not a strong El Nino year." The El Nino weather phenomenon leads to warmer equatorial water, a contributing factor in the origin of hurricanes, Heffner said. Nonetheless, he said, "Each and every year, we have to prepare the same way."

"We have very realistic scenarios with hurricanes having an impact on the Big Island, Maui, all of the islands," Heffner said.

Should a hurricane strike Hawaii again, the state is better prepared to handle it, officials say.

Improved infrastructure such as reinforced communication towers and accessibility to generators as well as upgrades in technology that allow forecasters to better track storms all figure into the state's preparedness, said Maj. Chuck Anthony, a spokesman for the state Civil Defense.

Stricter building codes, additional shelters and better coordination among response agencies also help, he said.

"We're in better shape," Anthony said. "That's not to say we were in bad shape during Hurricane Iniki, but we've made improvements."



Central Pacific Hurricane Center



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