The Rising East
Chen’s talk of
independence vote causes
unease from Beijing to D.C.President Chen Shui-bian of Taiwan has caused consternation from Beijing to Washington and in his capital in Taipei by suggesting that the island nation take a long stride toward real as opposed to de facto independence.
Chen suggested last weekend that Taiwan should adopt legislation that would permit the nation's voters to decide in a referendum whether Taiwan should declare formal independence. In doing so, Chen revived a proposal he has contemplated for five years; it comes after he called recently for Taiwan to "take its own path."
Chen did not specifically call for a referendum, just a law permitting it. Even so, the government in mainland China, which claims sovereignty over the island, condemned Chen's proposal several times this week as "a brazen provocation" and threatened military action.
With the Chinese having long said that the fate of Taiwan is the most sensitive issue between China and the United States, a senior Washington official said this week that Chen's remarks were "unfortunate." The Bush administration, which has been highly supportive of Taiwan, was given no advance notice of Chen's proposal and officials have privately told Taiwanese officials that they are dismayed.
ASSOCIATED PRESS
A pro-China unification activist shouted slogans Wednesday outside the American Institute in Taiwan, the island's de facto U.S. embassy in Taipei. The activists were protesting Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian's calling for a law to make legal a referendum on independence. The banner reads: "Chen Shui-bian endangers Taiwanese people's lifes and properties."
In Taipei, Chen's political adversaries excoriated him and polls showed that voters were uneasy about the proposal. A spokesman for the Nationalist Party, or Kuomintang, called the plan "risky." A newspaper poll reported that 53 percent were concerned that Chen would provoke China by moving too fast toward true independence.
The notion of a referendum has a history. More than five years ago, when Chen was mayor of Taipei, he said that the people of Taiwan should "decide whether they want to declare independence." No political party, even his own Democratic Progressive Party or the Chinese Communist Party, "can decide Taiwan's future," he said.
Chen has long viewed the referendum as a political weapon. He told this correspondent in June 1998 that he would use it if he became president and "certain big powers try to sell Taiwan out." He did not name them, but appeared to have China, the United States and Japan in mind.
Chen added: "And if we do hold a referendum, we will win." The "we" clearly meant pro-independence advocates.
Chen said that a referendum was not then necessary because Taiwan already was in fact a sovereign and independent nation, echoing his predecessor, President Lee Teng-hui. Although a member of the Kuomintang, Lee is a native-born Taiwanese, as is Chen.
In his inaugural address in May 2000, Chen said he would not call for a referendum. Shortly after, he began a campaign to engage Chinese leaders in a dialogue about the future of Taiwan, with no conditions. Beijing, however, has insisted it would talk with Chen only after he acknowledged that Taiwan belonged to China, a condition Chen has refused to accept.
Chen has not explained why he changed his mind. Americans with good contacts in Taiwan and strategic thinkers in Taiwan have speculated that Chen had four reasons:
>> Frustration. After two years of being rebuffed by Chinese leaders, Chen was seeking to escalate the rhetoric to get Beijing to respond. In addition, the tiny island nation of Nauru switched its diplomatic relations from Taipei to Beijing, reducing to 27 the number of nations recognizing Taiwan.In any case, the danger in Chen's path is that he has miscalculated the reactions in Beijing, Washington and Taipei. The confrontation across the Taiwan Strait is, in the eyes of thoughtful observers, the most volatile in Asia and any move that disturbs the status quo can have unintended consequences.>> Chinese distraction. The Chinese Communist Party is in the midst of a struggle over who will succeed President Jiang Zemin, who is scheduled to step down in the fall but who has mounted a vigorous campaign to retain at least some of his offices.
>> Bush support. President Bush has said the United States would do "whatever it takes" to help defend Taiwan from Chinese aggression and has insisted that any settlement across the Taiwan Strait be peaceful and in accord with the wishes of the people on Taiwan.
>> Domestic politics. Chen may have been trying to rally his pro-independence supporters who have been discouraged by what to them appear to have been Chen's compromises intended to appease Beijing.
Richard Halloran is a former correspondent
for The New York Times in Asia and a former editorial
director of the Star-Bulletin. His column appears Sundays.
He can be reached by e-mail at rhalloran@starbulletin.com
