[ OUR OPINION ]
SADDAM Hussein's invitation to renew talks for the return of weapons inspectors to Iraq should put the brakes on any plans by the Bush administration to topple his regime. Though the White House has scoffed at the invite, it could not have come at a better time, as the possibility of a U.S. military attack faces mounting opposition among allies in Europe and the Middle East, in Congress and within the administration itself. The challenge will be forcing Iraq to agree to meaningful inspections. New U.N. arms inspections
could ward off Iraq war
THE ISSUE Iraq has invited the United Nations to renew talks about returning weapons inspectors into the country.
Hussein's agreement to resume talks could effectively shift the public focus from White House military plans for achieving a "regime change" to Iraq's reluctance in granting comprehensive inspections. Its continued refusal to allow inspectors total access can only improve U.S. ability to build a coalition needed to sustain a military operation, if that becomes necessary.
Naji Sabri, Hussein's foreign minister, sent a letter to U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan agreeing to discuss a return of the U.N. inspectors. The inspectors left Iraq in frustration in 1998, followed by four days of U.S. air and missile strikes as punishment of Iraq for blocking the inspections. Three rounds of talks earlier this year failed to make headway, but the threat of U.S. military action may have prodded Hussein back to the table.
A U.S. offensive would be difficult to justify without evidence of an imminent threat to the United States or of a connection between Iraq and the Sept. 11 attack on America. Instead, Iraq's threat is separate from the threat of al-Qaida terrorism. Former U.N. weapons inspector Richard Butler of Australia told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee this week he believes Hussein has built the arsenal for domestic political reasons, not to share with terrorists or to use against America, a provocation that Hussein realizes would be suicidal.
While Hussein is believed to have developed chemical and biological weaponry and accelerated Iraq's nuclear program, the extent of its arsenal of weapons of mass destruction, located underground and thus undetectable by satellite, is unknown. "We do not know and never have known fully the quantity and quality of Iraq's WMD," Butler said. "Its policies of concealment ensured that this was the case."
Butler does believe the weapons inspections were useful in deterring Iraq's development of weapons and favored their renewal. "An ideal situation would be the resumption of arms control in Iraq, inspections and serious arms control," he said, but not the "shell game" of "phony inspections" desired by Hussein.
Nearly all the experts appearing before the Foreign Relations Committee said that setting up a stable, pro-Western government in Baghdad would require a huge infusion of aid and a long-term military commitment. "If the U.S. is going to take the responsibility for removing the current leadership, it should assume that it cannot get the results it wants on the cheap," said Phebe Marr, a retired professor from the National Defense University who has written extensively on Iraq.
Scott Feil, a retired Army colonel who studies postwar reconstruction programs, estimated that the force would cost more than $16 billion a year and would be needed for at least 12 months. He said that maintaining stability would require at least 5,000 U.S. troops for at least five more years.
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