The Rising East
What if the America-haters
in Asia actually got
what they want?Supposing, just for the sake of argument, the United States did what the America-haters in Asia want and withdrew its military, economic, and political presence from the region, what would happen? Most likely, the law of unintended consequences would run rampant.
The America-haters are legion but unevenly distributed from the Sea of Japan to the Red Sea. They include political and military leaders in North Korea and China, pockets of vocal left-wing activists in South Korea and Japan, particularly in Okinawa, and a swath of Muslims from the Philippines and Indonesia across South Asia to Iraq and Saudi Arabia.
While disparate in their ideologies and ambitions, they are united in the cry: "Yankee, go home." Interestingly, neo-isolationist Americans might be happy to accommodate the America-haters because those Americans are tired of seeing their fellow citizens kidnapped and killed, their flag burned, their embassies bombed, and their country generally blamed for the ills of the world.
For the Yankees to go home would mean withdrawing 100,000 military people, mostly from South Korea, Japan and the western reaches of the Pacific Ocean. Security treaties with South Korea, Japan, the Philippines, Thailand and Australia and the implicit security guarantees to Taiwan and Singapore would be abrogated.
The U.S. pledge to maintain the freedom of passage through the South China Sea, the world's most traveled waterway, would be abandoned. U.S. counter-terrorist help would disappear from the Philippines and Indonesia. A decade of U.S. naval patrols in the Persian Gulf would end as would the posting of air forces in Saudi Arabia. Once the terrorists have been driven from Afghanistan, U.S. forces would leave.
Because protectionism is the cousin of isolationism, trade barriers would be thrown up to shrink the $400 billion U.S. market for Asian goods. In 2001, China sold $102 billion in goods and services to the U.S., Japan $126 billion, and other nations in the region $172 billion. Those markets would not disappear but they would dwindle.
Then what, speculatively?
China would accelerate its march, almost unimpeded, toward re-establishing the Middle Kingdom's dominance over Asia. Beijing would seek to impose a hegemony under which no decision of importance would be made in any Asian capital without China's approval. Taiwan would be conquered and the South China Sea would become a Chinese lake.
Japan, deprived of its American shield, would acquire military power commensurate with its population and economic strength in a ten year defense program. The cost of rebuilding the economy of Okinawa, once dependent on U.S. spending, would be a noticeable burden on Japanese taxpayers.
India, already a nuclear power, would become more competitive with China for influence in Asia and would seek to destroy China's ally in Pakistan, also a nuclear power. With or without a nuclear exchange, India would win but the Hindu regime would be tasked with governing a seething minority of 265 million Muslims.
In Korea, the possibilities are three: North Korea would attack South Korea to unify the peninsula but would be defeated, leaving South Korea to bear the cost of absorbing the North; North Korea, its economy in shambles, would collapse, with the same result for the South; or South Korea would become impatient and invade the North.
The Philippines, already fractured with insurrections, private armies and a breakdown in law and order, would descend into chaos. Indonesia, with its separatist movements, would break apart into small nations.
Muslim extremists across South Asia would have a freer hand as they sought to overthrow moderate governments, especially in Pakistan. Chances for moderate reform in Iran would disappear. Iraq would be free to prey on its neighbors. The feudal monarchy in Saudi Arabia would be a particular target of extremists because that country is home to Islam's most sacred religious sites.
The Americans would retreat to Fortress America and rely on their deep-water navy for defense. Having withdrawn from Asia, their homeland would be far less of a target for the America-haters. Protectionism would put a dent in the U.S. economy but the reduced cost of overseas and homeland security would offset that. Immigration from Asia would be reduced.
A final word to the America-haters: Be careful what you ask for because you might get it.
Richard Halloran is a former correspondent
for The New York Times in Asia and a former editorial
director of the Star-Bulletin. His column appears Sundays.
He can be reached by e-mail at rhalloran@starbulletin.com