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Little optimism The majority of Hawaii residents believe the state's economy will stay about the same or get worse in the future, according to a new statewide poll.
for economy
A majority of Hawaii residents
expect more of the same, or worseBy Lyn Danninger
ldanninger@starbulletin.com
Of 601 responses, 44 percent said they expect the state economy will remain about the same and 36 percent expect it to get worse. Thirteen percent said things will improve.
The poll was taken between Jan. 26 and Feb. 3 by Market Trends Pacific Inc. for the Star-Bulletin and KITV-4. Its margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Public ambivalence about the state's economic prospects is not surprising, said University of Hawaii economics professor Carl Bonham.
"It's the general barrage of bad news," he said. "It seems to take longer for good news to be absorbed than bad news."
Bonham cites examples of two recent business bankruptcies, American Classic Voyages Co. and Aloha Tower LP.
"That gets internalized but then people don't internalize the fact that even after the bankruptcy and with two ships gone, we are still supposed to have a record number of cruise ship visits this year," Bonham said. "With Aloha Tower, a typical individual may think it is shutting down and all the jobs are gone, but that's not the case."
Bonham's view is supported by David Lee, owner of downtown's GCI Wireless.
"Bad news is almost always immediate and if you hear it again and again, you tend to think it's true. That most people don't have optimism about the immediate future, I'm not surprised," Lee said.
The number of unemployment claims filed since Sept. 11 supports the view that the state's economy may not recover anytime soon, but also adds to confusion about the future.
As of Jan. 26, 56,313 unemployment claims have been filed since Sept. 11 -- more than double the 26,714 claims filed for the same period the previous year, said state Department of Labor spokesman, Tom Jackson.
Since then, 2,126 more people have filed for unemployment.
It is difficult to predict the future when the numbers fluctuate dramatically, Jackson said.
"We can't even predict anymore," he said. "One week it will jump to 3,000 claims, the following week it will be down near 1,000. It's just all over the place."
Residents of Kauai seemed to have the widest divergence of views on the state's economic future, with more people both optimistic and pessimistic about the future compared with those who live on other islands.
In a rare show of agreement on an issue, members of political parties expressed remarkably similar views when asked about the state's prospects for economic recovery.
Thirty-six percent of Independents and Republicans polled were in agreement that the economy would worsen while 43 percent said they expected it to remain about the same. The margin of error is 5 percentage points.
Democrats displayed similar opinions -- 35 percent said they expected the economy to get worse while 48 percent said it would remain about the same. The margin of error is 6.5 percentage points.
Overall, those polled were far more optimistic about their own future financial situation than they were about the state's prospects.
"That's not unusual," said UH's Bonham. "When it comes down to personal questions people are not as influenced by public perception."
Of those polled, 49 percent said they expect their personal finances to remain about the same while 34 percent said they expect improvement. Only 11 percent said they expect things to get worse.