On Politics
By Richard Borreca
Sunday, January 20, 2002
Hopes dim for Dems
winning gov raceThere are two schools of thought about the Democrats and this year's governor's race: Either they are in trouble because Mayor Jeremy Harris, the Democratic front-runner, is under investigation by the city prosecutor, or they are really in trouble because the investigation means the new front-runner is former Republican Party chairman D.G. "Andy" Anderson.
With either alternative, the result is a weakened Democrat in the general election against a formidable Linda Lingle waiting to argue her case for a new government with a new economy, pumped up with new money and fresh troops.
Imagine one of those television Doppler radar pictures of a Category Five hurricane way off in the Pacific bearing down on an isolated atoll, and you have a pretty good idea of the fix the Democrats are in.
The Democrats troubles started with the Campaign Spending Commission saying there is evidence the Harris' campaign willfully violated the state's campaign spending laws. The commission asked the city prosecutor to handle the case and soon after it became clear that the FBI was also interested in Harris' fund raising.
The mayor has denied any wrongdoing, called the investigation an attack on the good names of his supporters and said he would remain in the race for governor.
The timing of the prosecutor's investigation and the possibility that it might lead to a federal investigation are confusing matters for the Democrats.
Supporters and friends describe Harris as a tough, disciplined campaigner who isn't likely to drop out of the race. Harris did flinch four years ago, when he postponed a race against incumbent Ben Cayetano in 1998 in the name of party unity. But for Harris to leave the race now would be widely interpreted as an admission of guilt.
Barring a resolution of the criminal investigation, Harris is likely to wait until the filing deadline on the afternoon of July 23 before getting in the race. Getting in any sooner would require him to step down as mayor and wouldn't help his campaign, which so far has been framed in city-related ribbon cuttings and park dedications.
Waiting until the last minute also effectively freezes any other potential opponents from entering the race. That's the delay that effectively checkmates the Democrats.
Harris may be under investigation, but he is still the mayor and like any other incumbent, commands a sizable City Hall operation to help with the campaign.
As Cayetano speculated last week, if the Harris investigation turns up nothing, the mayor looks like a victim of a smear and his campaign rises with a sympathy vote.
But if the campaign spending investigation results in charges or indictments, then the Harris campaign is finished. If all that happens after the filing deadline, then either Rep. Ed Case or Anderson will face Lingle in the general election.
While Anderson is working hard to corral Democrat votes, even he acknowledges that while he switched parties, he hasn't changed philosophies. Many long-time Democrats remember Anderson as the Republican who ran for governor, ran the party, ran former Mayor Frank Fasi's successful GOP campaigns and even talked three Democratic city councilmen into joining the GOP. All that Republican history is going to be difficult for Democrats to put aside.
Case is emerging as the "tough love" advocate of the Democratic primary. For instance, when even Republican Lingle said if elected governor, she would not lay off state workers to balance the budget, Case said he would do what he had to do and if that included pink slips, so be it. That position may appeal to many outside of government, but Honolulu is a company town and the biggest employer is the government, so attacks on job security won't sell.
All this leaves the Democrats weakened and fragmented, as former House Speaker Joe Souki said when asked what the Democrats need: "Maybe a minor miracle would work."
Richard Borreca writes on politics every Sunday in the Star-Bulletin.
He can be reached at 525-8630 or by e-mail at rborreca@starbulletin.com.
