Dry weather and tropical storms could hit the Hawaiian Islands as a result of El Nino, according to lead forecaster Bob Farrell of the National Weather Service. El Nino poised to
strike isle weatherThe phenomenon can generate dry
weather and tropical stormsStar-Bulletin staff
But Farrell said, "It's a long shot that a storm would affect the islands because we're a small target."
El Nino, the weather phenomenon that can unleash devastating floods and droughts, is likely to return this spring, but how harmful it might be is unclear, U.S. government weather forecasters said yesterday.
Forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration made the prediction based on readings of warmer water in the Pacific Ocean.
The possibility of tropical storms may affect an area of the Pacific southeast of the Hawaiian Islands, Farrell said. However, there is no real indication whether Hawaii would have a storm, he added.
"We have to see if it develops," Farrell said.
In the winter it is expected to be dryer than normal, he said.
The last El Nino episode in 1997-98, considered extremely severe, was blamed for searing droughts in Australia, the Philippines and Indonesia, and floods in Peru and Ecuador.
"At this point it is too early to predict if this El Nino might develop along the same lines as the 1997-98 episode or be weaker," said Vernon Kousky, a climate specialist with the federal agency.
El Nino, meaning "boy child" in Spanish, is an abnormal warming of waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean that usually happens once every two to seven years. First reported by Latin American fishermen, the anomaly was named after the Christ child because it was usually seen around Christmas.
El Nino can have a major impact on wind and rainfall patterns around the world causing storms, droughts and crop failures.
"From agriculture to energy on down to the small convenience store owner who is stockpiling snow shovels, El Nino really is an all-encompassing phenomenon," Kousky said.
For the United States, El Nino usually translates into cooler, wetter conditions.
NOAA said it decided to issue the El Nino forecast after observing cloudiness and precipitation over the central Pacific for the first time since the last one occurred.
The first region of the world to feel the impact of a new El Nino would be the tropical Pacific. "Indonesia is likely to realize some relief from torrential rains," Kousky said.
Forecasters said the U.S. Pacific Northwest is likely to experience wetter-than-normal conditions in the fall if El Nino develops as predicted.
The state of Louisiana eastward to Florida, and possibly southern California, could also be drenched with above average rainfall, while the northern Great Plains would see warmer temperatures.
Some weather forecasters were surprised by the early El Nino prediction.
"This is unusual. El Nino developments don't usually show this early in the year," said Steven Mauget, meteorologist for the U.S. Agriculture Department. "Usually the earlier they develop, the stronger they tend to be."
Tony Barnston, a weather expert with Columbia University, said there was a 60 to 70 percent chance of El Nino occurring by late spring.
"It's a fairly good possibility," Barnston said, "but I certainly wouldn't make a flat statement that it's going to happen."
Barnston said he did not think this year's El Nino would be as severe as it was in 1997-98, since ocean temperatures in the western Pacific are milder now.
NOAA said it should know by the end of spring the potential magnitude of El Nino for the rest of 2002.
Star-Bulletin writer Rosemarie Bernardo and Reuters news service contributed to this report.