The Rising East
Taiwan election solidifies
ideals of democracy
and independence
President Chen Shui-bian of the Republic of China on Taiwan has once again confounded his critics and opponents, not the least of them the Chinese leaders in Beijing, with his party's solid win in legislative elections last weekend.Chen's Democratic Progressive Party, which was illegal 15 years ago, rose to become the largest party in the Legislative Yuan, or parliament, although not with a majority. The Nationalist Party, founded in Honolulu a century ago by the revolutionary Sun Yat Sen and perhaps better known by its Chinese name, Kuomintang, lost its majority for the first time since fleeing to Taiwan in 1949 after its military defeat by the Chinese communists.
For Chen, who was inaugurated in May 2000, the showing at the polls means he should be able to make progress on political reform and rooting out corruption after 18 months of Kuomintang obstruction. Said June Dreyer, a specialist on Taiwan who is a political scientist at the University of Miami: "He still does not have a parliamentary majority, but at least it will be easier than it was for the first year and a half."
The implications of Chen's victory will be felt from Taipei to Beijing, Tokyo and Washington. Among the striking consequences:
Democracy: Some 66 percent of the eligible voters went to the ballot boxes, down from the 76 to 83 percent in the last three elections but still a respectable showing. Curiously, voting turnout in democracies tends to drop as democratic government matures and is perhaps taken more for granted.
International support: Around the world, democratic nations tend to support other democracies. All but a handful of nations have forsworn diplomatic relations with Taiwan so as not to antagonize China, which lays claim to the island. Even so, democracies rarely abandon other democracies in a showdown.
Independence: The DPP has been a strong advocate of independence for Taiwan in the past even though Chen has modulated the party's rhetoric so as not to provoke Beijing. The rising popular support for the party continues to evince a deep if unspoken Taiwanese desire to remain separated from mainland China.
Kuomintang: The KMT's share of the vote has plummeted from 71 percent in 1980, when the party was an authoritarian master, to 31 percent in this election. It is still seen as the party of Chinese mainlanders who arrived in 1949 while the DPP is the party of native Taiwanese. Thus self-determination has become stronger in Taiwan.
China: The tepid reaction in Beijing to the election results suggests that China's leaders are in a quandary. They seem to sense that Taiwan's drift toward independence has quickened but they can do little about it as backing for Taiwan gradually builds.
Jiang Zemin: The president of China, Jiang Zemin, can only be chagrined by the support for Chen. The return of Hong Kong from Britain and Macao from Portugal occurred on his watch even though he had little to do with making that happen. Jiang is believed to have thirsted for getting Taiwan back before he leaves office in 2003.
Washington: President Bush has said the fate of Taiwan must be decided peacefully and according to the wishes of the Taiwanese. The string of successful elections can only improve the image of Taiwan in the eyes of Americans and a high-level delegation from Taiwan is due in Washington this week to exploit just that sentiment.
There are a couple of other elements working in Chen's and Taiwan's favor. Some Chinese scholars and military officers have contended that the United States did not have the stomach to fight for Taiwan. The U.S. response to the assaults of Sept. 11 and the consequent military campaign in Afghan- istan may have turned the Chinese away from that potential miscalculation.
In economics, Taiwan and China have just been admitted to the World Trade Organization. Taiwan's economy has been hurting recently and membership in the WTO should help pull the island out of its slide. Business executives have for years been eager to see their nation gain entry to the WTO.
For the last decade, Taiwan has been seeking more maneuvering space in the international arena as it seeks to escape being stifled by China. The WTO will most likely give Taiwanese representatives more political as well as economic running room.
Richard Halloran is editorial director of the Star-Bulletin.
He can be reached by e-mail at rhalloran@starbulletin.com