The Rising East
FOUR YEARS AGO, 620 paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division in Ft. Bragg, N.C., flew non-stop for 19 hours in C-17 aircraft that were refueled in flight, then parachuted into the Central Asian nation of Kazakhstan, near Afghanistan. "Genghis Khan," Lt. Gen. Walter Ulmer observed later, "would have been impressed." Striking Afghanistan
would be difficult and
dangerous, but possibleIn the tumultuous days since the terrorist attack on New York and Washington, much debate has focused on whether the United States, with its vaunted military power, could reach out to hammer distant, remote and landlocked Afghanistan if, indeed, it could be proven that the murderous venture was launched from there.
Striking Afghanistan would be difficult, but within U.S. military capabilities. Simultaneously striking other nations -- Iraq, Iran, Syria, Lebanon, Libya -- that harbor terrorists might be more difficult, although they could be reached from ships in the Mediterranean or from bases in Europe. Thus, what the deputy secretary of defense, Paul Wolfowitz, has called a "broad and sustained campaign" might require that they be struck in sequence.
The main obstacle to military action, however, will be more political than military. Congress has given President Bush the authority and the funds to apply military power, NATO appears to be on board, and Middle Eastern nations have been warned that they must stand up against terrorism or be counted as enemies.
If and when the president orders military action will be a time of political testing. Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest source of oil, is widely reported to have financed the Taliban, the Islamic extremists in control of Afghanistan, and Pakistan is among the few nations having diplomatic relations with Kabul. President Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan issued a statement last week assuring the United States "of our unstinted cooperation in the fight against terrorism."
Most of Afghanistan, believed to be the haven of Osama bin Laden, a leader of the terrorists, is within range of cruise missiles. They could be launched from ships or submarines in the Arabian Sea, south of Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. That's been done, although with only moderate success, as when President Clinton ordered strikes against terrorists there in 1998.
Navy F-18 attack planes, which can be refueled in the air, could attack Kandahar in southern Afghanistan, believed to be a base for bin Laden, from the aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson in the Arabian Sea.
Bombers armed with cruise missiles or conventional bombs, and all equipped for aerial refueling, could be over any spot on the globe within 24 hours. A possible combination would be to have B-52s fire cruise missiles to take out Afghan anti-aircraft batteries, with B-1s following them in to drop their bomb loads.
Far more difficult would be sending ground forces into Afghanistan, either small Ranger or Special Forces Teams to hunt down the terrorists, or much larger brigades of paratroopers to invade. Afghan warriors repelled two invasions by the British in the 19th century and two by the Russians in the 20th century.
In the most recent invasion, Afghanistan became Russia's Vietnam as Soviet troops fought a losing, 10-year guerrilla war before they were driven out. That venture so drained Moscow of blood and money that it contributed much to the fall of the Soviet Union in 1989.
If the president decides to send in ground troops, the United States has depots with equipment stored in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Qatar, and on the island of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean. The Central Command, with headquarters in Tampa, has been in operation since before the Gulf War and has a naval element in Bahrain.
A buildup of ground forces would take less than the six months of the Gulf War because Army, Navy, Air Force, Marine, and logistics units have been identified. Much midnight oil is most likely being burned in the Central Command headquarters preparing contingency plans to respond to whatever the president decides.
The critical issue would be access to bases and passage through Pakistan, notwithstanding Musharraf's pledge. Historically, the invasion routes through the Khyber Pass and others in northwest Pakistan were traveled by the Mongols and other invaders from Central Asia. U.S. soldiers, like the British in the 19th century, would be going the other way.
The famed British poet, Rudyard Kipling, warned of fighting in Afghanistan:
If your officer's dead, an' the sergeants look white,
Remember it's ruin to run from a fight.
So take open order, lie down, an' sit tight,
An' wait for supports like a soldier.Richard Halloran is editorial director of the Star-Bulletin.
He can be reached by e-mail at rhalloran@starbulletin.com
