Isles among top Hawaii's public school enrollment may increase by 11.7 percent from 1999 to 2011, placing it among the top five U.S. states, according to the U.S. Department of Education's Projections of Education.
in school growth
A federal study says Hawaii's
public school enrollment may
rise 11.7 percent by 2011By Leila Fujimori
lfujimori@starbulletin.comBut Hawaii's Education Department shows enrollment has dropped slightly statewide. The 2000-2001 school year's enrollment was at 183,520, a drop of about 1,500 students from the previous year.
"I'm curious because this is a big difference without seeing the figures they are basing it on," said Assistant Schools Superintendent Deborah Oyama after seeing the federal numbers for the first time.
The U.S. Education Department's Projections of Education Statistics, released yesterday, predict Hawaii and 12 other Western states will see enrollment rise collectively by 7.5 percent by 2011, while school populations will drop in 29 states, mostly in the Northeast, Midwest and South.
Enrollments are expected to drop 3.3 percent in the Midwest and 4.2 percent in the Northeast.
Oyama said enrollment in Hawaii began to decline in 1998-1999.
Schools Facilities Director Raynor Minami said enrollment has been stable, with a small percentage of decline.
Although the Department of Education does not have 12-year projections, Minami said the state's six-year projections "don't show that kind of increase." He had no specific figures immediately available.
The Leeward and Central school districts are near capacity and beyond, Minami said. In these areas of new development, Minami said year-round multitrack scheduling is being used to accommodate the overflow of students.
New classrooms are being built in new growth areas such as Royal Kunia. Mililani Mauka II will be the next new elementary school built.
However, Minami said the Department of Education has experienced overbuilding in areas such as East Honolulu. Kaiser and Kalani high schools, for example, have seen a downturn in enrollment.
Overall, the report said, total public and private elementary and secondary enrollment is expected to grow to 53.4 million in 2005 from 52.9 million students in 1999. After that it will likely drop a bit to 53 million by 2011. In all, the total number of children in school will rise by 0.7 percent.
Figures for the report came from federal and state agencies, private researchers and professional associations such as the National Education Association. Sources included government surveys, compilations of administrative records from school districts and results of the 1990 U.S. Census.
Projections of national population data from the 2000 U.S. Census will not be released until next year.
In the West, six states -- Idaho, New Mexico, Nevada, Alaska, Hawaii and Arizona -- are expected to see the biggest jump in enrollments.
"This may be news to parts of the country, but it's not news to Arizona, because we've been in this for a couple of years," said Jean Bell, principal of Maclennan Elementary School in Wickenburg, Ariz.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.