Weather Service Despite predictions that this year's hurricane season may only produce three or four Pacific storms, hurricane experts say it only takes one to be devastating.
predicts normal year
for hurricanes
No relief for drought
Perhaps 3 or 4 storms will pass
>> Defining a tropical disturbance.
by Hawaii, forecasters say, urging
residents to prepare
>> Categories of destructive power.
>> Supplies for before, during and after.
>> Stocking water a vital priority.
>> Key Web sites for storm information.By Gregg K. Kakesako
Star-BulletinJim Weyman, director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service Central Pacific Hurricane Center, said, "It's a matter of when, not if."
Hurricane Iwa in 1982 killed one person and left $234 million in damage. Ten years later, Hurricane Iniki caused $2.4 billion in damage and the deaths of three people.
"We can't be sure if a hurricane will strike Hawaii this year," Weyman, "but in order to survive, we must be prepared."
The Central Pacific hurricane season begins June 1 and runs through Nov. 30. Since 1960, Central Pacific hurricane seasons have produced mixed results, ranging from 11 major storms in 1992 and 1994 to none in 1960, 1964, 1969, 1977 and 1979.
Weyman predicts that this year's weak La Nina or near normal weather conditions in the Pacific will result in an average number of storms -- between three and four.
He said the same prediction holds true for the Atlantic coast and the Caribbean.
This means near normal ocean temperatures in the Pacific through August with a slight warming of the waters by the end of year.
That will mean no relief for the drought-plagued parts of the island chain
that have seen less-than-normal levels of rainfall for the past four years.
Kevin Kodama, the Weather Service's senior hydrologist, said, "Most areas of the state are experiencing below-normal rainfall," with January being unseasonably "very dry."
In January, Kahului Airport on Maui, with 0.03 inches of rainfall, set a new record low, and Honolulu Airport, reporting in at 0.18 inches, tied a record.
"The outlook is not good," Kodama said, "for existing drought areas, especially those on the leeward side of the islands."
That also means a summer where there will be a greater risk of wildfires and increased consumption of water, he added.
Weyman said that last year there were four tropical cyclones or weather systems in the Pacific which resulted in one hurricane and the three tropical storms. The one that was the most threatening for Hawaii was Tropical Storm Daniel, which brushed north of the islands on July 21.
Weather forecasters say that only one in 10 tropical disturbances with winds up to 38 miles per hour develops into a tropical storm, which has winds up to 74 mph. Seven in 10 tropical storms turn into hurricanes with winds of more than 74 mph.
In Hawaii the most destructive hurricane was Iniki in 1992, since it passed right over Kauai with maximum gusts of 150 mph.
As part of the state's ongoing civil defense efforts, exercise "Makani Pahili" will be held June 1-8 to test federal, state, city and private-sector hurricane preparedness plans, said Tom Heffner, the Weather Service's warning coordination meteorologist.
"During Makani Pahili we stage a mock hurricane and go through many of the steps we would take for a real storm. We plot the track and intensity and issue watches and warnings."
Besides government agencies, the exercise includes the military, the Red Cross, hospitals and other disaster relief agencies.
"Makani pahili" is the Hawaiian term for hurricane.
Heffner pointed out that homeowners can protect their homes by bolstering them with hurricane clips and other fasteners and taking other means to retrofit them to withstand a storm. He commended Kauai County for taking the lead last November by passing an ordinance that provides a $40,000 property tax exemption for homeowners who build a reinforced "safe room."
If there is a Central Pacific tropical storm this year, meteorologists already have a name for it, Alika.
The National Hurricane Center, located in Miami, provides official hurricane information, forecasts, advisories, watches and warnings to the public. The center issues advisories every six hours during the life of a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane. Here are things to do before, during and after the storm makes landfall. Play it safe
Supplies
>> Nonperishable food>> Drinking water
>> Medications
>> Battery-powered radio and/or TV
>> Flashlights or lanterns
>> Extra batteries
>> Manual can opener
>> Disposable plates, cups and utensils
>> Disposable washcloths and towels
>> First-aid kit
>> Ice chest and ice
>> Matches
>> Nonelectric clock
>> Sterno
>> Toiletries
>> Fuel can
>> Plastic drop cloth
>> Fire extinguisher
>> Cellular phone with extra batteries
>> Portable generator
>> Extension cords
>> Latex gloves
>> Tool kit
>> Sunscreen
>> Extra clothes
>> Extra cash
>> Insect repellent
>> Books, magazines, toys, cards and games for entertainment
>> Important papers (insurance policies, bank account numbers, family contacts, medical information)
Before the storm
Every year, families should review their hurricane plan and make changes as necessary. If you plan to evacuate, your plan should include where you will go, the route to get there, when you will leave and what to take with you, and what preparations you will make to your home.If you plan to stay, make sure that you have all of the supplies necessary to be on your own for at least 72 hours. If you are planning to go to an evacuation shelter, have your shelter supplies kit packed and ready.
Make sure that you have all the materials on hand to protect your home and that you prepare your home no later than when a hurricane warning is issued. You should also trim dead wood and limbs from your trees. Don't forget to make arrangements for your pets.
If a storm is threatening the area, listen to local media for information and actions to be taken.
In addition, you should:
>> Fuel your vehicle.
>> Bring in outdoor objects such as lawn furniture, toys and garden tools.
>> Install your storm shutters or plywood, and secure all doors.
>> Prepare boats as appropriate.
>> Turn up refrigerators and freezers to their coldest settings.
>> Turn off small appliances that are not needed.
>> If you evacuate, turn off your air conditioner. If you stay at home and the power goes off, turn off your air conditioner. Turn it back on only after power has been restored in your area.
>> Turn off all LP tanks.
>> Fill sinks and bathtubs with water.
>> Get an extra supply of cash.
>> Call someone out of town to let them know of your plans. Then instruct other family members to call that person for information about you after the storm. It is usually easier for you to call out of the area after a storm than it is for others to call into the area.
During the storm
>> Stay away from windows and doors, even if they are covered. Go to an interior first-floor section of the house such as a hallway, bathroom or closet.>> Close all interior doors and brace exterior doors.
>> Lie on the floor, under a sturdy object.
>> If the eye of the storm passes over, it will be calm for a short period of time. Remain indoors. As soon as the eye passes over, winds will increase rapidly to hurricane force from the opposite direction.
>> Remain calm. It may take several hours for the storm to pass.
After the storm
>> Drive only if it is absolutely necessary. Immediately following the passage of the storm, debris and flood waters may be covering roadways, making them impassable.>> Stay on firm ground. Moving water only 6 inches deep can sweep you off your feet. Standing water may also be electrically charged from downed power lines.
>> Beware of insects and animals driven to higher ground by flood waters.
>> Enter your home with extreme caution. Beware of fallen objects or damaged roofs and wall sections. Watch for nails, splinters, holes in walls or floors, wet or falling sections of ceiling, undermined foundations and gas leaks. Use flashlights for light. Do not use matches, torches or other open flame.
>> Remove shutters or plywood, and open windows and doors to ventilate or dry your home if necessary.
>> Check gas, water and electrical lines and appliances for damage. Do not attempt to repair gas or electrical lines. Call a professional.
>> Do not drink or prepare food with tap water until you are certain that it is not contaminated. The Health Department will issue advisories regarding drinking water in your area.
>> If your home has been flooded, flush plumbing fixtures with buckets of water to be sure they are open. Have health authorities inspect your sanitary disposal system. Water may have backed up into the septic tank, which in turn backs up into the plumbing system.
>> Use a flashlight, never candles.
>> Do not use food that has come in contact with flood waters.
>> Start cleanup as soon as possible, especially if your home was flooded. Take pictures of all damage before you begin cleanup or repairs, for insurance purposes. Thoroughly dry and clean your house before trying to live in it.
>> Give special attention to cleaning children's toys, cribs, playpens and play equipment. Boil any items a toddler or baby might put in his mouth. Discard stuffed, waterlogged and noncleanable toys.
>> Wear protective clothing on legs, arms, feet and hands while cleaning up debris. Wear rubber gloves while scrubbing flood-damaged interiors and furniture.
>> Never connect portable generators to your house. Use them only to run the necessary appliances, and plug the appliance into the generator.
Water
Stocking water reserves and learning how to purify contaminated water should be among your top priorities in preparing for a hurricane. You should store at least a one-week supply of water for each family member. The rule of thumb is to store one gallon of water, per person, per day.You can store water in plastic, glass or fiberglass containers, which should be rinsed with a bleach solution before using.
If you store tap water, you should treat it with a preservative, such as unscented chlorine bleach, to prevent the growth of microorganisms. Use liquid bleach that contains 5.25 percent sodium hypochlorite and no soap. Add two drops of unscented bleach per quart of water (or two teaspoons per 10 gallons), stir, and let stand for at least 30 minutes. Seal the containers tightly, and store them in a cool, dark place.
Terms to know
Tropical disturbance: A moving area of thunderstorms that maintains its identity for 24 hours or more. A common phenomenon in the tropics.Tropical depression: An organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with a defined circulation and maximum
sustained winds of 38 mph or less.
Tropical storm: An organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph.
Hurricane: An intense tropical weather system with a well-defined circulation and maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher. In the western Pacific, hurricanes are called "typhoons," and similar storms in the Indian Ocean are called "cyclones."
Hurricane watch: It is issued when there is a threat of hurricane conditions within 36 hours. Preliminary precautions should be taken.
Hurricane warning: It is issued when sustained winds of 74 mph or more are expected in a specified area in 24 hours or less. A hurricane warning can remain in effect when dangerously high water or high waves continue, even though winds may be less than 74 mph. Actions for protection of life and property should begin immediately when the warning is issued.
Classifications
Hurricanes are classified into five categories, based on their wind speeds and potential to cause damage.Category 1: Winds of 74-95 mph and storm surge 4 to 5 feet above normal. Damage limited to unanchored mobile homes and poorly constructed signs. Limited coastal road flooding and minor pier damage.
Category 2: Winds of 96-110 mph and storm surge generally 6 to 8 feet above normal. Roofing, door and window damage to buildings. Considerable damage to mobile homes, signs and piers. Coastal and low-lying areas may flood as the storm approaches land. Small craft in unprotected anchorages break moorings.
Category 3: Winds of 111-130 mph with storm surge 9 to 12 feet above normal. Some structural damage to homes. Mobile homes are destroyed. Coastal and low-lying escape routes will flood as the storm approaches the coast. Storm surge and waves will destroy coastal small structures.
Category 4: Winds 131-155 mph and storm surge of 13 to 18 feet. More extensive roof structure failure on buildings without proper anchoring and strapping. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Coastal and low-lying escape routes will flood as the storm approaches the coast. Storm surge will cause major damage to structures near the coast.
Category 5: Winds in excess of 155 mph and storm surge greater that 18 feet. Complete roof failure on many buildings. Some buildings destroyed. Coastal and low-lying areas will flood as the storm approaches the coast. Destruction of structures along the coast from storm surge and waves. Extensive damage to inland homes near the coast from floating debris.
Web sites
More information on hurricanes and disaster preparedness can be found on the Web.State Civil Defense http://www.scd.state.hi.us
For updates on "Makani Pahili," a June 1-8 test of federal, state, city and private-sector hurricane preparedness plans.
Hurricane Awareness Week http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
National Hurricane Center http://www.nws.noaa.gov/pr/hnl/cphc/pages/cphc.shtml
Hawaii Statewide Hazard Mitigation Forum http://www.MotherNature-Hawaii.com
National Weather Service http://www.nws.noaa.gov
Storm Prediction Center http://www.spc.noaa.gov
Federal Emergency Management Agency http://www.fema.gov
American Red Cross http://www.redcross.org