The Rising East
DESPITE a rocky first year, President Chen Shui-bian of Taiwan has shrewdly, even cunningly, outmaneuvered his two main adversaries, the Communist Chinese leaders on the mainland and the Nationalist or Kuomintang chieftains at home. Chen fares better
at outwitting his foes
abroad than at homeOn that gray but warm and humid day when Chen was inaugurated a year ago today, he wasted little time in setting out his agenda for dealing with both the Peoples Republic of China (PRC) and the Kuomintang (KMT).
"Taiwan stands up," he exulted, mimicking a line that China's revolutionary leader, Mao Zedong, had used atop Tiananmen, the Gate of Heavenly Peace, in Beijing on Oct. 1, 1949, when he proclaimed the birth of the PRC. By repeating that exclamation, Chen let it be known that he was bent on preserving Taiwan's right to self-determination and would not kowtow before Beijing.
In the same address, Chen did not refer directly to his political opponents, having narrowly defeated their candidate, Lien Chan, to crack the long hold of KMT on the presidency. Instead, he said: "We want to break the authoritarian attitudes from the days of centralized, money-controlled power."
Chen has fared better in outwitting the PRC than he has with the KMT. The proof of that will be underscored tomorrow when he arrives in New York to be welcomed by members of Congress and American civic leaders. Their meetings will be unofficial since the United States does not have formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan. Even so, Beijing has protested vehemently as Chinese leaders consider Chen to be an illegitimate functionary of a breakaway province.
THROUGHOUT the past year, Chen has taken what appears to be a conciliatory posture toward Beijing, urging the Chinese to renew a dialogue with Taiwan and to renounce the use of force in settling differences with Taiwan. Behind that curtain, he has rebuffed Chinese demands that he accept their definition of "one-China," which would mean conceding Chinese sovereignty over Taiwan.
Chen has also been imaginative. His latest tactic, suggested in a televised anniversary speech on Friday, was that he attend the annual meeting of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum to be held in Shanghai next fall."I also wish to hold direct talks with President Jiang Zemin," Chen said. Boldly referring to Jiang as his equal was almost certain to infuriate the Chinese leader.
Nodding toward the summit meeting between President Kim Dae Jung of South Korea and President Kim Jong-il of North Korea last June, Chen said he hoped the Chinese would "bravely write a new chapter in history" in which he and Jiang would "create their own historic handshake."
If the experience of the past year is any measure, Beijing will reject the proposal with shrill petulance. For a year, Chinese leaders have stuck to a two- note theme: Chen must accept their definition of "one China" and, if he does not, the Peoples Liberation Army is prepared to launch missiles, aircraft and an invasion force against Taiwan.
PUBLIC OPINION polls, press comments, and casual conversations with Taiwanese suggest that Beijing has succeeded only in hardening the resolve of the people on the island to remain separate from the mainland. At the same time, the vast majority of those in Taiwan, including President Chen, have made clear they will not provoke Beijing by making a formal declaration of independence.
As for getting the better of the KMT, Chen noted that he has not done quite so well after he led what had been the opposition Democratic Progressive Party into the government for the first time.
"Looking back over the past year," he said in his anniversary speech, "we find the process of changing the governing party is like shedding a shell...We must acknowledge that neither the administration nor the opposition has been fully successful in its transition."
The KMT, which still controls the legislature, has fought Chen at every turn and forced the new president to proceed with the construction of a nuclear power plant that he had promised to halt. KMT leaders have also curried favor with Beijing in an attempt to undercut the president.
That appears, however, to have backfired. Chen claimed in his address: "People have become tired of the confrontation and deadlock." Pointing to the national legislative elections later this year, he said: "Whatever the outcome of the election at the end of 2001, people do not want this to continue."
Richard Halloran is editorial director of the Star-Bulletin.
He can be reached by e-mail at rhalloran@starbulletin.com