Gathering Places
Gathering Places
THE RIVALRY on the Korean Peninsula and the isolation of North Korea have long been obstacles to security cooperation in Northeast Asia. Given the rapprochement on the peninsula, it is not too early -- or too late -- to start thinking about such cooperation at sea. Road to Asian security
may begin at seaIndeed, there is a need for maritime initiatives due to new uncertainties and conflict points created by a wave of maritime jurisdictional extensions to 200 nautical miles in 1996. These jurisdictional extensions and resulting disputes over maritime space were thrust upon an already unstable political environment. But these disputes could be mitigated by co-operative ocean management.
Developments over the past two years may provide a basis for trust-building agreements. Russia staged a search-and-rescue drill with Japan in 1998. Japanese and South Korean naval vessels staged a search-and-rescue operation in the East China Sea last year. Last October Russia and China announced joint-naval maneuvers. South Korea has proposed joint-maritime search-and-rescue missions with China as well as an exchange of visits by naval ships, and has asked Russia to join a naval exercise.
MEANWHILE, THE United States has proposed that a search-and-rescue training exercise with Malaysia include China and Japan. Japan and China have resumed a security dialogue, while Russia and North Korea have signed a new treaty of friendship.
These agreements, however, are more tactical than strategic. It would be a mistake to conceive of regional naval cooperation as merely assembling cooperative measures, as if the larger strategic security dilemma did not exist. Therefore the convergence of proposals by China, South Korea and Russia for a multilateral security forum for Northeast Asia is significant.
To build confidence, multilateral initiatives should be pragmatic, using gradual approaches with clearly defined objectives. The best way is to begin small, avoid excessive formality and use bilateral agreements as a foundation. The initial focus should be on low-level matters such as bilateral Incidents at Sea (INCSEA) agreements, which already exist between the United States and Russia, the United States and China, Japan and Russia, Japan and South Korea and South Korea and Russia.GIVEN THIS NETWORK of INCSEA agreements, a multilateral agreement on a "code of conduct" for Northeast Asian seas would be a natural step. Initially, multilateral arrangements should address common maritime problems like search and rescue, environmental protection, drug trafficking and smuggling. Cooperation in ocean management could spill over into trust-building among navies. A pure military agreement would be more appropriate when all regional navies have blue-water fleets.
There are formidable obstacles. North Korea has shown little desire to participate in multilateral discussions on security issues. It has, however, joined the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Regional Forum as an observer. The conflict between China and Taiwan poses a serious problem. An attempt to include both in an official agreement would be folly, unless the arrangement was considered informal.
Given Russia's domestic turmoil, it is not likely to be a steady partner in a cooperative regime soon but nevertheless must be included to build a foundation for regional peace. Including South Korea would be a signal that the agreement was not aimed at forming "a new concert of powers."
The United States should be included because of its long regional involvement, its alliances with Japan and South Korea, and its forward deployed troops.
INDEED, A U.S. role may be critical because, without its intelligence support, Japan and South Korea would probably be reluctant to join. A recent proposal by the commander of U.S. forces in the Pacific, Adm. Dennis Blair, for multilateral naval exercises in Asia could boost the concept.
Further out to sea, an international naval or "self-defense" force might ensure ocean peacekeeping, including safety of navigation. This joint force could focus on areas outside national jurisdiction and emphasize protection of fisheries, air-sea rescue and environmental monitoring.
When all is said and done, however, navy-to-navy arrangements will depend on political relations. This could be enhanced by comprehensive ocean management.
Mark J. Valencia is a senior fellow at the East-West Center in Honolulu.