Severe shortage
of nurses predicted

The aging population could lead to
a crisis in the U.S., a health care
specialist warns

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By Helen Altonn
Star-Bulletin

Unless something is done to prevent it, an unprecedented gap in the supply and demand for nurses will occur in the United States in 15 years, says a national specialist on health care issues.

Fewer nurses will be available to care for an aging population and a surge of retiring baby boomers, said Peter Buerhaus, Valere Potter professor of nursing and senior associate dean for research at Vanderbilt University School of Nursing.

A shortage of 200,000 to 400,000 registered nurses is expected if current trends continue, he told a conference on "Nursing's Critical Issues" attended by about 165 people yesterday at the Waikiki Beach Marriott Resort.

Buerhaus and Jack Needleman, Harvard University assistant professor of economics and health policy, were brought here to help Hawaii address its nursing plight. The state is short about 400 registered nurses, and officials expect the situation to worsen here, as well as across the country.

"Nursing will be heading south at a time when society will need us most, and we are not going to be there," Buerhaus said.

"We have never seen anything like this," he added. "It is off the chart. We're talking about the system stopping. The system can't exist without nurses."

Interest in nursing as a career has waned with other opportunities opening for young people, he said, citing these facts:

>> The number of registered nurses (RNs) under age 30 dropped 41 percent from 1993-98 compared with a 1 percent drop in workers that age in the rest of the economy.

>> Sixty percent of nurses in 1998 were over 40, and the average age now is 42.4 nationally, 45 in Hawaii.

>> RNs in their 50s will be the most dominant in 10 years.

>> A dramatic increase in the over-65 population will occur after 2010 as baby boomers reach retirement age. Many will begin working fewer hours at age 53.

"The aging meltdown of our work force is already happening, and this is a real wake-up call," Buerhaus said. "This is going to be huge down the road."

Needleman and Buerhaus have completed a study for the federal government on the consequences of nursing staff on patient welfare in hospitals.

Staffing in operating rooms has not gone up quickly enough, and positions may be held by aides and nonregulated personnel, which raises questions about whether patients are at risk, Needleman said.

The study will not be released for several weeks, but Needleman said the data for medical patients indicate RN staffing "really makes a difference in patient outcome."

Buerhaus said public opinion about nursing is favorable, "but I am worried that we will lose this." He urged the gathering of nursing and health care representatives "to get the issue off our shoulders and into the social policy area."

He said hundreds of millions of dollars should be spent nationally to improve the imaging of nursing, reduce costs of nurses' education, eliminate the stigma and barriers for men and minorities in nursing and develop ways to use the experience and knowledge of older RNs.

Nancy McGuckin, Hawaii Nurses Association executive director, said she will plan a meeting of leaders in the nursing industry to discuss the problems and build consensus, then broaden the discussions with a statewide task force.