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Capitol View

By Richard Borreca

Wednesday, March 14, 2001


Change could
mean GOP
in 2002

WHAT people want is change. Hawaii's Republicans and Democrats know that, but what's change to Republicans and what's change to Democrats are wildly different ideas.

If the state Legislature is any indication, there is more and more a feeling that change is coming.

The most dynamic and volatile body in the Legislature today is the state House, with Speaker Calvin Say presiding over several factions of Democrats divided by age, philosophy and economic interests.

Inside the House, Democratic members say that they are either providing "positive proof" of change as they start work on aid to education, civil service reform and changes to campaign spending laws, or readying whole new issues such as prescription drug help.

But Republicans see the accomplishments of the House as their ability to bring the popular, high-profile issues such as tax relief up for debate and a defining floor vote.

From the outside, however, it appears there is more in-fighting than unity.

The Legislature is designed so the House and Senate disagree, but inside the House the groups for and against pushing change are being more identifiable.

Rep. Ed Case, the former Democratic leader turned reformer, sees the tension building.

"If all members voted their political beliefs, as opposed to how their leadership, or colleagues, or special interests wanted them to vote, the result would be representative of a fiscally-socially moderate mainstream political thought," he said of the Legislature.

Ironically, Case and others who are in Democratic leadership are saying that a moderate approach is the big change in Democratic party politics.

After years of representing the unions and a liberal agenda of government-sponsored reforms, more Democrats are starting to feel that voters want less quantity but more quality from government.

Education is obviously the biggest issue in the state and legislators are nervously trying to fit increased teacher pay into the budget.

But Gov. Ben Cayetano's demands to hold tight against big salary jumps are making it even more difficult for the Legislature to move.

If the state's Democrats cannot accommmodate the public employee unions, then the Republicans' idea of change becomes more appealing, according to legislative lobbyists.

WHILE House and Senate Democrats are predicting some changes, lobbyists trying to figure out whom to back in next year's races see that the 2002 election could be the time the public says, "Change is what we need and I'm changing who I will vote for."

"The public might just say this is the time to set things straight," one lobbyist said.

Democrats are already nervous about the possible primary battle between Lt. Gov. Mazie Hirono and Honolulu Mayor Jeremy Harris. If the campaign forces Harris and Hirono to fight for traditional Democratic votes, it will force Harris to the left as he tries to appeal to union voters would might want to support Hirono.

But then if Harris wins the primary, he will be off-balance to counter Linda Lingle's mainstream and middle-of-the-road GOP campaign.

Even without the extra factor of the race for governor, Democrats could see their numbers shrink again in both the House and Senate.

Without providing a clear of view of a new Democratic party, the House and Senate Democrats are opening themselves up to discovering that change in 2002 means a Republican vote.




Richard Borreca reports on Hawaii's politics every Wednesday.
He can be reached by e-mail at rborreca@starbulletin.com




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