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Population
growth in Hawaii
on low side

One expert believes that as more
figures come in, they will show the
isles had an out-migration

---

By Pat Omandam
Star-Bulletin

Those who track population trends say Hawaii's 9.3 percent growth in the past decade does not mean more people moved to the state.

Instead, it shows only that another generation of island residents had babies, while some kamaaina left.

"Until we get more figures, we can't be certain, but I strongly suspect -- and I imagine you do, too -- that there has been out-migration of young people to the mainland during this decade because of a relatively depressed economy," said Gary Fuller, director of the population studies program at UH-Manoa.

"Certainly, all of us know somebody who has moved to Las Vegas, anyway."

Fuller said Hawaii's population increase of 103,308 reported yesterday by the U.S. Census Bureau is a combination of natural growth and migration. The figures were the first released for Census 2000, with much more data expected next year.

Vicky Chiu-Irion, communications director at the state Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism, added that the U.S. economic boom of the 1990s made the mainland much more attractive than Hawaii, contributing to the state's slow growth.

Census figures showed the islands' population grew to 1,211,537 on April 1, 2000, from 1,108,229 on April 1, 1990. Hawaii dropped a notch from the 1990 census to become the 42nd most populous state.

Nevada had the highest growth of any state, at 66.3 percent (or 796,424 people), and 2 million people now live there. California gained another 4 million residents and is the country's most populous state, with 33.8 million people.

While small compared to other states, Hawaii's 9.3 percent growth is within the ballpark of the national average of 13.1 percent.

Still, the increase does not affect Hawaii's congressional apportionment of two in the U.S. House of Representatives. And Fuller doubts it will have any significant impact on any financing or any other federal programs, although there is still a lot of information pending from the Census Bureau.

For example, if data show Hawaii's population is aging, then it could create a demand here for more services for the aged, such as long-term health care, he said.

Foremost for the census data, however, is its use in reapportionment at the state legislative level. Dwayne Yoshina, state chief elections officer, said that once detailed figures are available for Hawaii, they will be used to help the state's 2001 Reapportionment Commission reshape legislative districts as required every 10 years.

The eight-member commission will be appointed by the next state Legislature, which convenes Jan. 17.

"What they did in 1991 was, they took 51 representative districts and divided that into the population," Yoshina explained.

"That gave them the total population that could be in each one of those districts. And then, once they established those numbers, they then went in and drew the lines to see how close to that number that established polygon would fall," he said.

Meanwhile, others say lawmakers should plan now on the state's "carry capacity," that is, the maximum number of people the islands can hold.

Karl Kim, chairman of the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at UH-Manoa, said as Hawaii's population grows, state government must consider the strain on the islands' physical environment, as well as the competition for space and limited resources.

"Rather than focus just on meeting immediate needs and solving the crises and problems in today's headlines, we should be developing a long-range strategy for a more sustainable future," Kim said.

"We need to be encouraging 'smart growth' as well as more efficient patterns of development," he said.