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To Our Readers
PETER F. Drucker is no Peter-come-lately. At the age of 90, he's personally witnessed many of the historic changes in management theory on which he bases forecasts of revolutions yet to come. Prof. Drucker’s
crystal ballYou can measure the stature of the "Sage of Claremont" (the California graduate school where he still lectures) by the fact that Intel Chairman Andrew Grove says, "Drucker is a hero of mine."
Jack Welch, chairman and CEO of General Electric says, "My first central idea for GE back in 1981 came from Peter Drucker. It was my decision to be either No. 1 or No. 2 in each of our businesses --or get out of them altogether."
So, when Drucker spoke this week to Hawaii businessmen gathered at the Japan-America Institute of Management Science in Hawaii Kai, they listened.
Because of health problems, Drucker wasn't actually present. Instead, a virtual Drucker appeared on videotape. This was appropriate, since the professor is an advocate of using technology, especially the Internet, for continuing education.
The gist of Drucker's talk was that shifts in population and demographics in the next 20 years will have huge social impacts. Birthrates in most developed nations, particularly Japan, mainland China and Southern Europe, have plummeted and the number of young, working people is beginning to shrink alarmingly.
"It was axiomatic," Drucker said, "that birthrates increase in good times, but suddenly that is untrue." The exceptions have been the English-speaking nations, not because their own birthrates are so much higher but because of immigration.
Globally, work will flow to places that have workers and the U.S. stands to benefit from its long experience with immigration, while countries like Spain, Japan and Germany face terrific culture shock.
The aging workforces of the industrialized world will need to delay retirement while employment shifts increasingly from blue-collar jobs, agriculture and manufacturing to knowledge work. Increasing numbers of knowledge workers will re-educate themselves time and again to keep pace with changing jobs.
As a senior worker myself, it feels nice to be needed.
John Flanagan is editor and publisher of the Star-Bulletin.
To reach him call 525-8612, fax to 523-8509, send
e-mail to publisher@starbulletin.com or write to
P.O. Box 3080, Honolulu, Hawaii 96802.