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New possibilities
seen in predicting
natural disasters

By Steve Murray
Star-Bulletin

University of Hawaii and NASA scientists hope to predict eruptions of volcanoes by studying them from satellites.

Ghassem Asrar, NASA's associate administrator for earth science, said scientists will monitor the size of volcanoes to help with predictions. "We can measure the size down to a few millimeters right now," he said.

Luke Flynn, an associate researcher at UH's Hawaii Institute of Geophysics & Planetology, said using satellites to monitor volcanoes is an important new technology.

"It's very exciting," he said. "It allows us to monitor the start and stop times of eruptions. Sometime this year we plan to begin a study of volcanoes in Africa using a European satellite," Flynn said. Currently, the institute is only able to monitor volcanoes in the Pacific Basin.

That is one subject being discussed among 1,100 scientists this week at the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers conference at the Hilton Hawaiian Village. The conference will focus on improving remote sensing technology to track planetary changes.

In addition to predicting volcanic eruptions, Asrar believes that within 10 years new sensing equipment will allow scientists to more accurately track hurricanes and to predict earthquakes five years before they occur.

The institute's president, Bruce Eisenstein, said satellite technology is the primary source of information for mapping and monitoring changes to the land, oceans and glacial ice.

Other Hawaii-based remote sensing programs featured at the conference included lava analysis, aerosol measurements over Mauna Loa Observatory, coastal mapping and the spectral reflectance of coral. Remote sensing is the observation of Earth from distant points, usually satellites or aircraft.

Representatives from space agencies in Europe, Canada and Japan will discuss their nations' plans. Scientists will share ideas about new programs and technology. Eisenstein said the next step will be to share that information with the public.

"We need to do a better job of informing the decision makers and the general public about the programs," he said. "People need to understand how environmental changes in a faraway place can affect them."