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To Our Readers
I confess. Stories about El Niño numb my brain. Climate change is the ultimate can't-see-the-forest-for-the-trees story. It's like watching grass grow or a lake evaporate. It just happens too slowly to register. Make the most
out of El NiñoUnfortunately, I'm not the only one. Government leaders, planners and business people to a large degree have the same blind spots. According to Eileen Shea, climate project coordinator at the East-West Center, there's an information gap between scientists who study global climate and people who can use the information.
Shea says this isn't new. Aristotle was writing about climate change in 350 BC. Seeing rivers rise one year and dry up the next, he perceived there was a natural cycle. Yet, two millennia later, people still build houses in flood zones.
Part of the problem, Shea admits, is that scientists sometimes send mixed messages. They predicted the burning of rain forests would cause a runaway greenhouse effect, but it didn't happen -- perhaps because higher levels of carbon dioxide stimulated the growth of oxygen-producing plants. Despite dire predictions, the polar ice caps are still there and coastal cities aren't awash.
Still, we can't escape the facts. The Earth is warming and changes in rainfall and severe weather patterns will impact agriculture, ecosystems and human health. The most recent El Niño was the strongest on record, resulting in floods, death and economic devastation.
On a practical level, we can predict that El Niño will mean more rain in California and Florida and less in Hawaii, making ours a relatively more attractive tourist destination. We can foresee that El Niño will also bring us droughts and an increased likelihood of hurricanes -- Iwa (1982) and Iniki (1992) both struck in El Niño years.
Climate cycles offer both threats and opportunities, Shea says. Closing the information gap can minimize the first and capitalize on the second. Not only can we be better prepared -- buying generators, conserving water resources and getting ready for the inevitable -- but tourism marketers can even schedule advertising campaigns for those extra-sunny seasons.
John Flanagan is editor and publisher of the Star-Bulletin.
To reach him call 525-8612, fax to 523-8509, send
e-mail to publisher@starbulletin.com or write to
P.O. Box 3080, Honolulu, Hawaii 96802.