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Optimism on
economy soars

In a dramatic upward turn,
43 percent say the economy is
getting better, up from
6 percent in 1998.

By Tim Ruel
Star-Bulletin

More Hawaii residents are seeing brighter days ahead for the state's long-ailing economy, according to a Honolulu Star-Bulletin/NBC Hawaii News 8 poll.

The poll found that 43 percent of state residents say they think the economy is improving. That's up from 34 percent in a December poll and a dramatic turnaround from a March 1998 poll when only 6 percent saw better economic times ahead.

The latest poll found only 10 percent thought the economy was declining, an improvement from 15 percent in December and 46 percent in March 1998.

About 46 percent thought the economy was stagnant in the poll taken earlier this month, down from 49 percent in December but the same as in March 1998.

Interpretations on the improved outlook varied.

"I'm optimistic because I think you have to be," Liliha retiree and poll respondent Elizabeth Ho said. Ho said she also has high hopes for her investment portfolio.

State Sen. Sam Slom (R, Kalama Valley-Aina Haina) said he wasn't surprised by the latest results.

"The last two or three years were so god-awful that anything looks better," said Slom, a former economist for Bank of Hawaii who left the bank in 1982 and started a pro-business advocacy, Small Business Hawaii.

Since statehood, Hawaii's economy has been accustomed to long boom periods and short-lived contractions.

But starting in the early 1990s, the economy stagnated, growing less than an average of 1 percent each year from 1992 to 1998, according to state figures.

Lately, however, the state has seen signs of economic life, with higher tax revenues, stronger retail sales and a booming housing market. The state recently predicted that the economy and personal income would both grow 4.2 percent this year.

Jim Wang, a retired professor who teaches local politics at the University of Hawaii at Hilo, said some residents may feel better about the economy not because it is improving, but rather because government leaders have told them it is better.

The latest poll, for example, found only a quarter of residents saw a boost in their own personal finances during the past year, about half the number who said they thought the economy is improving.

More than half said their financial situation remained stagnant during the same time, while 19 percent said it was getting worse.

Expectations are rising, however.

About 38 percent of residents predicted their personal finances will improve through 2001 versus 7 percent who saw their situation getting worse, the poll said. And 53 percent expect their personal worth to remain the same.

Slom, who routinely criticizes Hawaii's Democratic leaders, contends that more people think the economy is better because those who complained in the past have moved out of the islands.

No exact figures are available on how many residents have departed, but more than one-third of residents said in a previous poll that they had considered leaving Hawaii as late as 1999.

The latest poll, a telephone survey of 426 registered Hawaii voters, was taken May 5-9 by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. of Washington, D.C. The margin of error is plus or minus 5 percentage points.