Hawaii’s World
ONE third of the way through the 20th century, in 1933, Hawaii hosted only 10,111 visitors, less than half the peak reached in 1929 before the Great Depression. Hawaii is hopeful
for the 21st centuryTwo thirds of the way through the century, in 1966, tourism passed the million-visitor mark for the first time -- 1,124,818.
This year we will get close to 7 million visitors and are rather disappointed. Despite a slight upswing from the recent past, over 20 percent of our hotel space has gone unsold.
We might keep these numbers in mind as we project growth forward through the first third of the 21st century.
I don't think tourism growth will match its old pace. Bigger planes are in sight but supersonics haven't been economical, so travel here may not be faster or very much cheaper.
We should evolve a changed visitor mix along with somewhat higher numbers. More visitors will fly direct to the neighbor islands. A bigger percentage will come from Asia and the Pacific, probably somewhat more from Europe and South America.
More may come for business conferences and education. Probably more will stay outside hotels. Cruise ships' stops could increase dramatically if neighbor island docking capacities increase but likely will remain a modest percentage of the total.
Back in 1967 I ventured in a journal called Hawaii Economic Forum that Hawaii should begin planning seriously for the year 2000. After all, I said, it was no farther ahead of us then than the 1930s, with the Massie case and a Navy cruiser drop-in by President Franklin D. Roosevelt, were behind us. Ships were the only way to get here in those days.
With statehood attained and jets flooding in, I ventured that the major 1967-2000 challenge might be to control development so as to avoid mucking up the environment.
Happily, we have done pretty well on that score. The state and all counties have worthy controls in place. Business, environmentalists and government teamed up to make this so.
For the next 33 years, our first big test will be to attain a happy resolution of Hawaiian sovereignty claims -- one that we (though not me; I'll be deceased) can say is beneficial to Hawaiians and non-Hawaiians and makes Hawaii an even more wonderful place with the disadvantaged state of many Hawaiians no longer on our consciences.
Hawaiians and state and federal politicians will have to work this out together. I pray for enlightened, non-racist approaches.
Most likely tourism will remain our No. 1 industry in 2033, with much more of it focused on the neighbor islands.
OTHER foreseeable elements of the economy are a continued U.S. military presence here, more focus on Hawaii as a congenial East-West meeting place for business, education and sports, some expansion of our science industries, and more footloose "think industries" based here just because this is a congenial place to be.
Strengthened diversified agriculture is needed to replace sugar and pineapple and join golf courses in helping to keep Hawaii green.
Winning places for our own people in the opportunities offered by a global economy will be the main challenge for public education (which MUST improve) and for our universities. The latter, through research, can become a major economic engine. On the cusp of a new century we have reasons to be hopeful.
A.A. Smyser is the contributing editor
and former editor of the the Star-Bulletin
His column runs Tuesday and Thursday.