View Point
FOR the third time in three years India is in the throes of another national election. In six weeks from now, around Oct. 21, there should be a new government taking charge in New Delhi. Indian voters hope
election brings stabilityIf current predictions come true, the man heading the new government would be Atal Behari Vajpayee, the charismatic leader of BJP, the Hindu nationalist party.
Though issues of poverty, corruption, pollution and crime are much on the minds of voters, no one is talking about them. The only issue on hand this time is stability. The Indian electorate seems to have finally realized that unless there is political stability not much else can happen.
After several years of political uncertainty and three elections in three years, the BJP and its allies are poised to win sufficient seats in Parliament this time to form a stable government that should last five years.
The polling, which began in India on Sunday, will be completed in five phases spread over four weeks. The counting of votes will begin on Oct. 6.
The 72-year-old Vajpayee, who is Indian's man of the hour, is a bachelor, a poet and an eloquent speaker. He is also an experienced politician and administrator, having served in Parliament for 40 years and having been elected prime minister twice.
Challenging Vajpayee, as leader of the Congress Party, is a 52-year-old Italian-born widow, Sonia Gandhi. Sonia hardly speaks any Indian language and has no administrative experience. Her only claim to fame is that she was married to the former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi. But this is no small claim. Rajiv was the son of Indira Gandhi and the grandson of India's first prime minister, Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru. Between Pandit Nehru, Indira Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi, the family held political power in India for close to 40 years. Both Indira Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi were assassinated.
Sonia is running for office on the strength of dynastic appeal. She also has the advantage of being the head of the Congress Party, which under the leadership of Mahatma Gandhi and Pandit Nehru won India freedom. The Congress, however, stands today as a fragmented party, discredited by charges of corruption and misrule. Sonia, who enjoys considerable popularity among the masses, hopes to revive the party and restore its past glory.
THE current elections in India are being watched around the world with more than usual interest. Given the hostility between India and Pakistan and given the fact that both have nuclear weapons, South Asia is suddenly being perceived as a dangerous place. Who comes to power in New Delhi will certainly have its impact on the course of events.
Since it is almost certain that the BJP will be the winner in the current elections, there is no doubt in anybody's mind that defense and the security of the country will take top priority.
As head of a caretaker government, Vajpayee had made a much-applauded attempt to improve relations with Pakistan by taking the dramatic bus journey to Lahore. But the recent bloody conflict between India and Pakistan in which at least 1,000 people on both sides were killed, has set back relations between the two countries.
Vajpayee today is a sorely disappointed man, who feels betrayed by the unexpected armed intrusion of Pakistan into Kashmir. Whatever else happens, everyone knows that he is not going to take chances with the defense of the country. Any increase in defense expenditure will, no doubt, take its toll on social welfare programs. It may also be viewed with alarm by other countries in the region.
As soon as a new government is installed in India, world pressure is bound to increase on New Delhi to establish a dialog with Pakistan. But if it is Vajpayee who heads the new government, he is almost certain to make it a condition that Pakistan must stop "cross border terrorism" in Kashmir before talks between the two countries can begin.
Inder Kapur, a former journalist from New Delhi,
now lives in Honolulu and writes frequently
on issues relating to India.