Editorials
Monday, September 6, 1999

War against AIDS
has a long way to go

The issue: Deaths from AIDS in the United States plunged in 1997 but decreased less last year.
Our view: A leveling off of AIDS deaths is indicated unless further advances are made in the battle against the disease.

If you thought that powerful new drugs have conquered AIDS, think again. The just-released statistics on deaths from AIDS in 1998 suggest otherwise.

AIDS deaths in the United States dropped for the first time in 1996, and in 1997 plunged a stunning 42 percent, the result of a growing use of drug combinations that included new drugs known as protese inhibitors.

But last year the drop, although substantial, was significantly smaller -- 20 percent. Similarly, new AIDS cases declined by 18 percent in 1997 but only 11 percent last year.

In 1998, 17,047 Americans died of AIDS and there were 44,289 new cases.

Scientists think the latest statistics suggest an eventual leveling off of the death rate at many thousands per year, rather than continued reduction, unless further progress is made in combating the disease.

One of the factors cited to explain the leveling off is the likelihood that most persons who know they are infected by the AIDS virus are already being treated and may have received the maximum benefit.

Another is the probability that the new drugs have a short period of effectiveness before the virus becomes resistant. Thus the drugs have postponed death by AIDS but haven't prevented it.

In addition, many patients have difficulty adhering to the complicated drug regimens. There are, apparently, no quick fixes for the AIDS epidemic, as the new drug combinations seemed to promise.

The long-range answer, experts say, lies in more prevention programs, expanded access to treatment and continued investment in research to develop more potent drugs.

There is a long way to go before AIDS is conquered, and no cause for complacency.

Federal budget surplus

The issue: The government is projecting a $2.9 trillion surplus.
Our view: The surplus is an illusion based on unrealistic assumptions.

Congress has been swooning over the prospect of a $2.9 trillion surplus over the next decade and the Democrats and Republicans have been debating what to do with that windfall. But it's all an illusion.

Jonathan Chait, a fellow at the New America Foundation, writes in The New Republic that the projected surplus is based on a cynical deal made between the Clinton White House and the congressional Republicans to enact the so-called Balanced Budget Act of 1997.

The deal had to do with what is known as discretionary spending -- everything except paying interest on the national debt and entitlements such as Social Security. The deal was that Congress -- not the 1997 Congress but future Congresses -- would steadily reduce discretionary spending starting in 1999 until the budget was balanced in 2002.

Now Congress is trying to enact the cuts mandated in the 1997 act, and, as Chait points out, it can't be done. "The House leadership," he writes, "has sunk to new depths of chicanery and beggary." Speaker Dennis Hastert decided to fund the 2000 census as an "emergency" in his desperate effort to meet the mandated spending caps in the regular budget. He even asked Republican governors to donate any spare welfare funds to the federal Treasury.

It will only get worse. By 2002, assuming the defense budget keeps pace with inflation, Chait says all other government operations will have to be cut by 20 percent. This is a pipedream.

In fact, the Republicans have embarked on a spending binge that puts the Democrats to shame and ignores their pledges to cut the size of government. Stephen Moore of the Cato Institute writes, "Today there is no strategy and no will power to cut anything out of the budget."

Yet the spending caps, with the draconian cuts in discretionary spending they require, are crucial to the projections of the surplus. If Congress simply allows discretionary spending to keep pace with inflation, much of the surplus will disappear.

"The on-budget surplus is almost entirely an illusion, the product of cooked books and wishful thinking," Chait writes.

Instead of quarreling about what to do with the surplus, the politicians ought to come clean and admit it isn't going to happen. But facing reality is not what they do best.

Beginning of Rainbows

The issue: Tremendous pre-game excitement enveloped the state as the UH football team attempted to end its notorious losing streak.
Our view: Despite the Rainbows' defeat, there is still much anticipation for the 1999 season and beyond.

USUALLY mired in controversy over budget cuts, accreditation worries or faculty grousing, the University of Hawaii made headlines of a different nature last week. Saturday brought renewed hope -- at least on the football field -- for UH students and supporters who had suffered through a demoralizing 0-12 season last year.

While their enthusiasm was tempered by an eventual 62-7 loss to USC, new UH head coach June Jones, his staff and players deserve congratulations for bringing some excitement to Glumsville.

Others contributed to the early giddiness, particularly the fans who purchased most of the 50,000 tickets at Aloha Stadium and braved traffic purgatory, and the four corporate sponsors that bought all the remaining seats to make it an official sellout, thereby allowing a statewide live TV broadcast.

In the wake of the defeat, two comforting thoughts should quell the pain: 1) there are 11 more games on the UH schedule to look forward to and 2) the USC team and its entourage are still in Hawaii, spending lots of money and boosting the economy. No doubt some of that windfall will wend its way to the university campus.

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Rupert E. Phillips, CEO

John M. Flanagan, Editor & Publisher

David Shapiro, Managing Editor

Diane Yukihiro Chang, Senior Editor & Editorial Page Editor

Frank Bridgewater & Michael Rovner, Assistant Managing Editors

A.A. Smyser, Contributing Editor