Editorials
Thursday, May 13, 1999Political reshuffling
risks Russian stabilityRUSSIAN President Boris Yeltsin's sacking of Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov has created political and economic chaos unprecedented in post-Soviet Russia. The likelihood of Yeltsin's choice of Primakov's successor being confirmed by the Duma, Russia's lower house of parliament, is questionable, while the threat of Yeltsin's impeachment has grown.The issue: The Kremlin is in chaos because of the dismissal of its prime minister.
The country's teetering economy may be at greater risk than at any time since the fall of communism.
Russia's financial meltdown last August caused the ruble to fall to one-fourth of its previous value. Yeltsin fired young reformist Sergei Kiriyenko as prime minister and replaced him with Primakov only after the Duma refused to reinstall Kiriyenko's predecessor, Viktor Chernomyrdin.
Primakov, a Soviet era spymaster, was no favorite of the West, but he seemed to bring political and economic stability to a people whose renowned patience was withering.
The ruble stabilized and Primakov was able to achieve a tentative $4.5 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund. That now may be jeopardized, and the World Bank has placed its $3 billion loan program to Russia on hold while awaiting the new government. The Russian stock market recently reached its highest point in a year, but plunged when Primakov was sacked. Primakov had enjoyed support from the Communist-dominated Duma, even though he followed market reforms and opposed the Duma's opening of a debate on whether to impeach Yeltsin.
Sergei Stepashin, 47, is a Yeltsin loyalist who -- if confirmed -- can be expected to appoint economic reformers to the cabinet, even though he has little knowledge of economics. As interior minister, he spearheaded a drive to combat government corruption and crime. He was appointed deputy prime minister only last month.
Yeltsin can make three nominations for prime minister. If they are rejected, Russia's constitution requires him to disband the parliament and schedule new elections.
However, once the impeachment proceedings have started, the constitution does not allow him to disband the parliament, creating a constitutional deadlock.
This is not the first time Yeltsin has taken drastic measures to reassert his authority when he saw aides assuming power. In this case, he seems to have reacted not only to Primakov's popularity but to the Duma impeachment move.
Yeltsin appears to have chosen to remain confrontational through the remainder of his term in office, which lasts until mid-2000. The question is whether he will continue to prevail.
East Timor election
offers self-determinationAFTER decades of conflict, one of Southeast Asia's festering problems is about to be resolved democratically. Indonesia and Portugal have agreed on a referendum on the future status of East Timor.
The agreement comes 23 years after Indonesia invaded the former Portuguese colony and a year after the ouster of Indonesia's President Suharto, who had ordered the occupation of the territory.
The United Nations Security Council unanimously adopted a resolution welcoming the agreement, which calls for a vote on Aug. 8. The U.N. has never recognized Indonesia's annexation of East Timor and still regards Portugal as the administering power in the territory.
In a reversal of national policy, the Indonesian government announced in January that it would offer the East Timorese independence if they rejected autonomy. For 15 years the United Nations had sponsored negotiations aimed at resolving the territory's status.
The U.N. resolution emphasized the responsibility of the Indonesian government to secure peace and order to ensure a fair election. There have been frequent attacks in recent weeks by pro-Jakarta militias in East Timor on supporters of independence. Pro-independence groups have accused the Indonesian army of supporting the militias.
The United Nations is planning to dispatch more than 200 civilian police officers to monitor the Indonesian police during the voting process. In addition, the Security Council may consider sending armed peacekeeping troops if the security situation worsens.
When Portugal pulled out of East Timor, Indonesia intervened to replace the departing colonial power. But the Timorese never fully accepted Indonesian rule, and now they will have an opportunity to exercise their right of self-determination.
The United Nations should strive to prevent the subversion of that exercise through force and intimidation.
Published by Liberty Newspapers Limited PartnershipRupert E. Phillips, CEO
John M. Flanagan, Editor & Publisher
David Shapiro, Managing Editor
Diane Yukihiro Chang, Senior Editor & Editorial Page Editor
Frank Bridgewater & Michael Rovner, Assistant Managing Editors
A.A. Smyser, Contributing Editor
