Hawaii’s World

By A.A. Smyser

Thursday, January 28, 1999

---

Brent Scowcroft’s
views on world affairs

BRENT Scowcroft, who was national security adviser to President Bush, sees drama ahead -- a new world being formed, one in which U.S. leadership must do its best to shape things favorably.

Scowcroft comes to Hawaii each January for meetings of the private Hawaii-based think tank, Pacific Forum/CSIS, for which he is board chairman. At an invitational briefing after its sessions he highlighted these great decisions lying ahead:

EUROPE -- Now that it has a common currency, the euro, we must woo it from being just a giant nation state into broader alliances. We need more focus on this.

The U.S. and Europe should work together to create an expanded free-trade zone. We should not build barriers between us.

Joint defense should be sought. Rather than build two separate systems, each with a capacity to ship troops worldwide, and each with its own suppliers, we should seek a coordinated transatlantic alliance to eliminate wasteful duplication.

RUSSIA --He sees it descended to "a Third World nation run by gangsters." It is humiliated. We can't help much but should do what we can to avoid a turn to hypernationalism as Russians figure out their new role.

IRAQ -- The united front against Saddam Hussein has frayed. The December attacks preceding impeachment hearings probably were not politically motivated. We seem to have hit the right targets -- first, buildings that had been closed to United Nations inspection; second, personnel important to Saddam. His reactions since the attacks suggest he has been seriously hurt.

IRAN -- There is light at the end of the tunnel with moderates increasing their influence, but their final success is far from assured.

THE MIDDLE EAST PEACE PROCESS -- The Oslo accords were the high point. The present Israeli government is not fully committed to them. Arabs see us practicing a double standard by attacking Iraq for breaking agreements but not Israel for its breaches.

NUCLEAR WEAPONS -- Control must be rethought.The world can't uninvent them and probably shouldn't totally eliminate them, but new situations demand a new accord. The major nuclear powers face double-standard suspicions for acquiescing in possession by India and Pakistan yet still trying to deny possession to Iran, Iraq and others.

ASIA -- The world's most dynamic area but with major troubles. China has big economic problems to work out. Its new restraints on dissidents may reflect this.

Privately if not publicly, a continued American presence is welcomed by almost all Asian nations as essential to area stability. The major exception is North Korea . Even it may see value in the U.S. as an intermediary in the North Korea-South Korea-Japan triangle, said South Korea's former ambassador to the U.S., Hong-Choo Hyun, also present at the briefing.

ROBERT B. Zoellick is the new president of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the parent organization of Pacific Forum/CSIS. He said bank systems are at the core of Asian economic problems and these cure only slowly.

How other countries deal with Asia in its crisis may shape attitudes for a long time to come, Zoellick cautioned. He sees recovery as sure but varying country by country and likely to take longer than many expect.

Japan's former ambassador to the U.S., Toshiaki Ogasawara, stressed the importance of establishing stable relations among the dollar, euro and yen.

---

A.A. Smyser is the contributing editor
and former editor of the the Star-Bulletin
His column runs Tuesday and Thursday.