FLIP a coin. There's a 50-50 chance it'll come up heads. Flip 25 heads in a row and each toss will convince more people that you can do it again. Yet, with each flip, the likelihood of keeping an unbroken string of heads alive becomes more and more remote. Go figure. Odds are good
things will changeFootball strategy relies on this. Keep running it up the middle and eventually the defense will over-commit. Then, fake the run and throw. Touchdown? Probably not. Good coaches know the longer you go without passing, the more likely you'll take to the air.
Korean Ambassador Lee Hong-koo told a Honolulu audience this week an excess of success led to his country's economic woes. Lenders, prompted by years of steady growth, offered more and more money with fewer and fewer strings attached. When Asian currencies collapsed, almost nobody saw it coming. Korea's slide was greased with bad credit.
Mutual fund brokers tout years of double-digit yields while mouthing the obligatory ''past results are no indication of future earnings.'' Few listen. We rely on past results.
It's said history never repeats itself, but historians do, over and over. For years, I've watched my industry base next year's budget on this year's results. In fact, it's worse. We now predict next year from this year's first six months! No wonder we spend so much time on explanations and recriminations.
We'd be better off flipping coins.
John Flanagan is editor and publisher of the Star-Bulletin.
To reach him call 525-8612, fax to 523-8509, send
e-mail to publisher@starbulletin.com or write to
P.O. Box 3080, Honolulu, Hawaii 96802.