Inouye mum,
but successor
talk has begun

The thought of the dean of
Hawaii politics retiring sets off
tremors here and in D.C.

By Pete Pichaske
Star-Bulletin

WASHINGTON -- Has Dan Inouye run his last campaign?

The third most senior member of the Senate and the unchallenged dean of Hawaii politics, re-elected last month with 79 percent of the vote, is not saying.

But even before the campaign, the speculation had begun that Inouye might call it a career in 2004, when he turns 80 years old, loosening his stranglehold on one of the top political posts in the state.

Asked if it were true, Inouye said this month that he would be unwise to make a lame duck of himself. "I think I'd be a fool if I told you," he said.

Still, he called his landslide victory "an election of recognition for me," and noted that the Republicans, who could have fielded a strong candidate, opted instead to give him what amounted to a free ride.

"It was an important election for me," said Inouye. "In many ways, they rewarded me . . . It was extremely gratifying."

Even the thought of Inouye retiring sets off tremors both here and in Hawaii.

"He's without peer among the people Hawaii has sent to Washington," said University of Maryland government and politics professor Roger H. Davidson, co-editor of "The Encyclopedia of the U.S. Congress."

"Sen. Inouye is one of the most influential members in the chamber. I have no doubt he has been able to get lots of benefits for the state because of his influence and his ability to construct alliances," he said.

"He's a treasure," said U.S. Rep. Neil Abercrombie, whose name is often mentioned as an Inouye successor. "Long life and health to him."

Inouye speculated freely about who would be in line to replace him, mentioning Abercrombie and U.S. Rep. Patsy Mink, Lt. Gov. Mazie Hirono, City Council Chairman Mufi Hannemann and Honolulu Mayor Jeremy Harris.

"The Democrats always have an overabundance of candidates," he said.

Others, seemingly reluctant to talk about replacing a legend, were less open with their speculation. But they conceded the talk has begun.

"There's a lot of speculation, about both senators," said Republican Linda Lingle, Maui County mayor. "Especially because of their age. (Both Inouye and Sen. Daniel Akaka are 74)."

"People are interested," said Hirono. "But it's really speculation now."

The speculation has been both tempered and fueled by other factors: the stability of the four-member Hawaii congressional delegation, which has not changed during the 1990s and has led to both restlessness and resignation among other politicians; the aging of the delegation, whose members range from 60 to 74; and the rumors that Sen. Daniel Akaka will retire rather than run again in two years.

Akaka, for his part, announced six months ago that he would run again in 2000 and recently repeated his intentions.

"It is a job I thoroughly enjoy," he said. "I intend to seek re-election and look forward to serving in a Democratic majority in January 2001."

"They're both getting up there, but they've got to be two of the healthiest 74-year-old men around," said Hannemann. "They look as fit as ever."

Inouye, meanwhile, seems bemused by the speculation and content to let it continue. He said his health is not an issue, although he had three operations in the past year or so (two for cataracts, one on his shoulder).

Inouye also noted that he had already filed with the Federal Election Commission to run again in 2004 -- and immediately pointed out that the filing is a technicality.

After Inouye - the early
favorites for U.S. Senate

Interviews with political insiders in Washington and Hawaii reveal that at this stage, a half-dozen men and women are considered most likely to make a serious run at the U.S. Senate should Sens. Inouye or Akaka retire.

---

Jeremy Harris

Honolulu mayor

At the top of some lists, including Inouye's, Harris almost ran for governor this year and clearly has ambitions for higher office. He plans to run for re-election in two years, he said, but a Senate seat is high on his list of future jobs. "If one of them retires, I would certainly consider it," said Harris, 47. "It's been an aspiration of mine."

---

Mazie Hirono

Lt. governor

Hirono is also high on everyone's list of potential Senate successors, especially after winning a second term last month.

Hirono, 50, intends to run for governor in four years, but an open mid-term Senate seat could prove irresistible. "There's a timing issue," she said. "But I'm not going to foreclose considering those seats should they become open ... I'm flattered and honored people are putting my name out."

---

Neil Abercrombie

U.S. Rep.

One month ago, Abercrombie's hold on his House seat was considered tenuous. But after winning a fifth term with 62 percent of the vote, his stock has climbed. At 60, Abercrombie is the youngest member of the congressional delegation, an obvious pool for Senate candidates, and in the past few years he has tempered both his liberal rhetoric and his liberal voting record and cultivated a more statesmanlike image.

---

Patsy Mink

U.S. Rep.

While considered less likely than Abercrombie to make a serious run at the Senate, in part because of her age (she turned 71 Dec. 6), Mink remains a formidable force in Hawaii politics.

She certainly has the Washington experience (she has served 20 years in the House, in two separate stints) and has exhibited the ambition (she has run in the past both for the Senate and for mayor).

---

Mufi Hannemann

City Council Chair

It is no secret that Hannemann, 44, has his eye on higher office, particularly one in Washington. He nearly won a seat in Congress a dozen years ago and has worked in Washington under two presidents. "It's definitely an option for me," said Hannemann. "It's a turf that I'm familiar with." Like others, Hannemann said he would run only if Akaka or Inouye retired.

---

Linda Lingle

Maui mayor

The Republican's narrow loss to Gov. Ben Cayetano last month dimmed her luster slightly, and she has said she prefers to be in elected office in Hawaii.

Still, Lingle, 45, is the first name mentioned when talk turns to potential GOP candidates for the Senate. "Having all the delegation from one particular party puts the state in a weakened condition, especially when Sen. Inouye, with his seniority, retires," Lingle said. "I do intend to stay involved in public life, and the Senate would be something I could consider."