StarBulletin.com

Poll shows Carlisle with lead in so-far fictional mayoral race


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POSTED: Wednesday, January 20, 2010

Of the four candidates aiming for the Honolulu mayor's office, city Prosecutor Peter Carlisle is an overwhelming favorite among voters, according to a poll conducted by the Star-Bulletin and KITV.

Now the candidates have to wait and see whether there is a race to run this year.

Carlisle, city Managing Director Kirk Caldwell and City Councilmen Donovan Dela Cruz and Rod Tam have pledged to run for the mayor's office in 2010 if incumbent Mufi Hannemann makes a run at the governor's office.

Hannemann has not declared for the governor's race, but has set up an exploratory committee and is raising money for a run at the office.

The Star-Bulletin-KITV poll asked respondents whether they recognized the names of the four mayoral candidates and whether they had a favorable, unfavorable or neutral opinion of that person.

Carlisle was recognized as favorable by 67 percent of those polled. Dela Cruz was next at 18 percent, followed by Caldwell at 11 percent and Tam at 10 percent.

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Tam was recognized as unfavorable by 40 percent, Dela Cruz and Caldwell each had 10 percent and Carlisle was at 7 percent.

“;The extent of the margin was unexpected, but for me it's very exciting,”; Carlisle said.

“;It's a long way to September,”; he added. “;And being a front-runner is not always advantageous because people become complacent. People believe the race may already be over, but nothing could be further from the truth.”;

The telephone poll of 557 registered voters on Oahu was conducted Jan. 8-12 by the national firm of Mason-Dixon Polling and Research. It has a margin of error of 4.2 percentage points.

The poll did not ask the “;horse race”; question of whom voters would select if the election were held today.

Dela Cruz said his focus right now is on the operations of the city, but expressed confidence in his campaign.

“;As we start to campaign, we're going to work hard to reach the voters,”; he said. “;We're going to share my experience and record, why I'm the best qualified for the job, and explain my plan for the city and how we're going to move Honolulu forward.”;

Caldwell said he was not surprised by Carlisle's rating, noting that the prosecutor has been in office—an elected position—since 1996.

“;The question I would ask is, Can he translate that into being an effective mayor to lead the city through tough economic times?”; Caldwell said.

Caldwell, whose name was unrecognized by 35 percent of those polled, added that he believes voters are not focused on the mayoral race because there is none with Hannemann still in office.

“;By the time they start to focus on the race, they're going to know who I am,”; Caldwell said.

Tam was in China on a business-related trip and was unavailable for comment, his campaign said.

               

     

 

POLL NUMBERS

        » How the poll was conducted

        » Complete poll numbers on the gubernatorial, congressional and mayoral races