StarBulletin.com

Independent voters are election wild card


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POSTED: Wednesday, January 20, 2010

The state's annual circus, aka the state Legislature, moves back into town today, so before we become snagged by the passing sideshow of budgets, taxes, imperiled judicial nominations, fireworks and same-sex marriage, let's take one more swipe at the fun stuff: Politics.

Politicians by nature are an optimistic bunch. They are forever thinking “;I know you will love me, if you just get to meet me.”;

So when presented with a political poll, such as the one just taken for the Star-Bulletin and KITV, politicians are likely to scan the columns of undecided or neutral voters to find new friends.

One of Hawaii's best political tacticians, Andy Winer, says the Star-Bulletin-KITV poll shows that the candidates are generally well-liked going into the race, but that watching the demographics will be key.

“;A significant percent of the voters have neutral views, which tells me that they have an open mind and can be persuaded one way or the other,”; Winer advises.

The ranks of the undecided are just a vast eHarmony listing for Ed Case and Colleen Hanabusa and Neil Abercrombie and Mufi Hannemann and Charles Djou and Duke Aiona as they search for the voter of their dreams.

For instance, if Mayor Mufi Hannemann is looking to find new BFFs, he would be wise to start chatting up Caucasian voters, because nearly 51 percent are neutral about the mayor.

When asked how they viewed both Abercrombie and Aiona, about a third of Caucasian voters said they were “;neutral”;—so Abercrombie and Aiona voters have already made up their minds, but this is an area for Hannemann to make gains.

Abercrombie could probably work harder to get more Filipino voters because almost 43 percent say they are undecided. And Aiona would be wise to make a pitch among Japanese voters, because more than 51 percent say they are neutral about him.

Hannemann would also do well to break out a big grin when he goes to the Neighbor Islands, because that is another area where 50 percent of the voters are neutral toward him.

At the end of the season, a politician's search for friends will likely trigger the Archie Bunker line: “;I got a lot of best friends—some of them I don't even hardly know.”;