StarBulletin.com

Candidates face battle in wooing undecided voters


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POSTED: Monday, January 18, 2010

A new public opinion polls shows that three major candidates for governor are well known but face voters who have not yet made up their mind about any of the candidates.

The poll, taken for the Star-Bulletin and KITV, surveyed 800 registered voters statewide and has a margin of error of 3.5 percent. It revealed that roughly a third of the voters have a favorable opinion of Republican Lt. Gov. James “;Duke”; Aiona Jr. and Democrats U.S. Rep. Neil Abercrombie and Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann.

Hannemann has not yet entered the race, but he has set up a campaign committee and collected more than $1.2 million for this year's race. Abercrombie says he will resign his congressional seat on Feb. 28 to campaign full time for governor.

The poll asked voters whether they had a favorable, unfavorable or neutral opinion of each of the candidates.

Aiona had the largest favorability rating at 41 percent, trailed by Hannemann at 38 percent and Abercrombie at 36 percent.

Democratic voters gave their pair slightly higher marks. Abercrombie was viewed as favorable by 46 percent, and Hannemann by 44 percent. Abercrombie's unfavorable rating was 18 percent, with Hannemann at 17 percent unfavorable.

All three were recognized by all voters.

Andy Winer, a top Hawaii Democratic campaign strategist now working for the Obama administration as director of external affairs for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, says favorable or unfavorable ratings are key in a political campaign.

“;The results from this poll tell me that voters are still making up their minds about this race. They have decent impressions of the candidates, but a significant percent of the voters have neutral views, which tells me that they have an open mind and can be persuaded one way or the other,”; Winer said.

The question the candidates will have to answer to be successful in the fall is, Who are those voters with a neutral impression?

“;Do the voters with favorable views of Neil overlap with voters who have a favorable view of Mufi, or are there differences?”; Winer said.

Neal Milner, University of Hawaii political scientist, said the numbers should show the strength of both Abercrombie and Hannemann.

“;The most important finding is how similar all three are regarding favorables and unfavorables. In addition, I think that Mufi and Neil get more favorable ratings than many people would expect,”; Milner said.