StarBulletin.com

Abercrombie in slight lead for governor


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POSTED: Monday, January 18, 2010

U.S. Rep. Neil Abercrombie is slightly ahead of Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann in the race for governor, according to a new survey of registered voters.

The poll taken by telephone Jan. 8-12 among 800 registered voters across the state has a margin or error of 3.5 percent for the statewide survey and 4.5 percent for the smaller group of 489 likely Democratic primary voters.

The statewide poll also shows that either Abercrombie or Hannemann would beat the expected Republican candidate, Lt. Gov. James “;Duke”; Aiona Jr.

Abercrombie is favored by 43 percent of the voters compared with 34 for Aiona, according to the poll. Another 23 percent of those surveyed were undecided.

In the Hannemann-Aiona matchup, Hannemann takes 41 percent to Aiona's 35 percent, with 24 percent undecided.

In the expected primary contest between Abercrombie and Hannemann, Abercrombie holds a slight lead, 37 percent to 34 percent of the likely Democratic primary voters, with 29 percent undecided.

Abercrombie says the poll shows he has strength across the state even though he has represented the urban Honolulu 1st Congressional district for 20 years and has never campaigned off Oahu.

“;The great thing about this is we are just getting started. We expect this to launch us. ... It is very encouraging and exciting,”; Abercrombie said.

Hannemann declined comment, with spokeswoman Elisa Yadao saying “;he is not commenting because he has not yet formally entered the race.”;

Although Hannemann has not filed with the state Elections Office, he has set up a campaign committee and has collected $1.2 million to run for governor.

David Carey, a spokesman for the Hannemann exploratory committee, described the poll as “;a statistical dead heat.”;

Aiona said his numbers would increase.

“;As more people begin to focus on their choice for governor, I'm confident that my proven record of leadership, integrity and good judgment will resonate with Hawaii's families and small businesses,”; Aiona said.

The poll, which was taken by the national polling firm Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, shows that Abercrombie is slightly stronger than Hannemann among likely Democratic primary voters on Oahu with 38 percent of the vote and Hannemann with 34 percent.

The pair split the neighbor islands, with both getting 34.5 percent of primary voters with slightly more than 30 percent undecided.

Abercrombie says he has been devoting extra attention to the off-Oahu areas because he is not as well known.

“;Neighbor island campaign is a revelation. It is about how much people want to have somebody who is actually going to be involved with them.

“;They want someone who is going to stay as governor,”; Abercrombie said as a dig against Hannemann, who has also said he wanted to serve someday in the U.S. Senate or House.

Abercrombie is slightly favored more by male primary voters and holds a strong preference among women voters, getting 40 percent of the vote, compared with Hannemann's 31 percent of female primary voters.

Abercrombie does best with voters age 50-64 where he takes 44 percent of the vote compared with Hannemann's 19 percent.

Hannemann is ahead with those over age 65, with almost 58 percent of those older voters.

Looking at voters on an ethnic basis, Hannemann has more support than Abercrombie among Japanese, Filipino and Hawaiian voters. Abercrombie has a larger number of Caucasian voters.