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Honolulu rebound dismissed


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POSTED: Wednesday, June 17, 2009

Honolulu's economic recovery does not appear imminent, according to a study of the economic performance of America's top 100 metropolitan areas by the Wash., D.C.-based Brookings Institute.

The MetroMonitor study shows different degrees of impact on cities across different economic categories, even within the same regions of the country — and ranks Honolulu among the second-strongest 20 metro areas out of five groupings.

The significant drop in Honolulu's gross metropolitan product, or “;the value of all the goods and services that you produce,”; is one reason Honolulu should not expect to be among the first cities to bounce back, said Alan Berube, co-author of the report.

Some metro areas appear to be reaching the bottom of their own downturns while others seem to be turning the corner.

In metro areas where the downturn was shallow, “;people think they're seeing the green shoots,”; of recovery and “;as a result, look like they're poised to come out of this relatively quickly — but Honolulu is not one of those metropolitan areas,”; he said.

The impact of declining tourism has been somewhat offset by “;government and military concentration that has moderated employment losses compared to other metro areas,”; such as Orlando or Las Vegas.

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On the Net:

» www.brookings.edu/ metromonitor

HONOLULU'S ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE

Honolulu's economic performance as a top 100 U.S. metropolitan area varies depending on the category, as studied by the Brookings Institute:

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           
CATEGORYRANKMETRICTIME FRAME
REAL ESTATE-OWNED PROPERTIES
Per 1,000 mortgagable properties50.91March 2009
Housing prices64-3.9%Q1 2008 to Q1 2009
EMPLOYMENT
Change from peak30-1.9%
One-quarter change30-0.8%Q4 '08 to Q1 '09
UNEMPLOYMENT
Unemployment rate105.8%Q1 2009
One-year percentage point change433.2 pointsQ1 2008 to Q1 2009
GROSS METROPOLITAN PRODUCT
Change in GMP from peak23-2.0%
One-quarter change in GMP66-1.3%Q4 '08 to Q1 '09
Average wages91-0.3%Q4 '08 to Q1 '09

For all indicators, a rank of 1 signifies the strongest-performing metro while a rank of 100 signifies the weakest-performing metro.

Source: Brookings Institute