StarBulletin.com

State budget update hinges on forecast


By

POSTED: Tuesday, January 06, 2009

Gov. Linda Lingle's administration is taking a wait-and-see approach before deciding whether to revise its budget proposal for the upcoming fiscal biennium.

               

     

 

Agencies estimate budgets

        Lawmakers have begun hearing from state agencies on their budget needs for the upcoming biennium. A look at some of the upcoming hearings and the agencies that will be presenting testimony.
       

» Today: Office of Hawaiian Affairs

       

» Thursday: Department of Health

       

» Friday: Department of Education

       

» Monday: Department of Public Safety

       

» Next Tuesday: Counties

       

» Jan. 15: University of Hawaii; Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism

       

» Jan. 22: Department of Transportation

       

Source: Hawaii State Legislature

       

The state Council on Revenues, which sets the revenue estimate used by lawmakers in crafting the state budget, meets Friday to issue its next quarterly forecast.

Yesterday, as lawmakers kicked off three weeks of hearings to solicit input from state agencies on their budget needs, Lingle's finance director refused to speculate on what their forecast might predict.

“;Frankly, if we did that, we would be guessing,”; Budget Director Georgina Kawamura told members of the Senate Ways and Means and House Finance committees. “;With respect to the Council on Revenues, we decided to wait until they come out with their report.”;

At a meeting in October, the council predicted that state tax revenues would be down $25 million for the 2009 fiscal year, which ends June 30, compared with the previous year. That represents a 0.5 percent decline.

Actual tax collections through the first five months of the fiscal year are down 2.6 percent from the same period a year ago.

“;I think most of us here understand it seems unlikely that the revenue picture will improve between now and Friday,”; said House Finance Chairman Marcus Oshiro (D, Wahiawa-Poamoho). “;It probably will go down.”;

Kawamura said her department has discussed various contingencies to prepare in case the council projects a further decline, but she declined to release any details to lawmakers.

“;Until we know exactly how much we have to come up with, I wouldn't want to speculate with regard to the proposals,”; she said.

Kawamura added that after the council issues its forecast, she will meet with the governor to further discuss the budget and what changes to make. The governor would likely try to meet with lawmakers after that to discuss the proposals, she said.

Lingle has proposed to reduce government spending through a combination of budget cuts, tighter tax collections, one-time special fund transfers and no pay raises for public employees whose contracts are up for renegotiation.

Those efforts would reduce spending and prevent any public worker layoffs, she contends.

Senate Ways and Means Chairwoman Donna Kim (D, Kalihi Valley-Halawa) questioned Kawamura on whether the state would be able to keep that pledge if revenue projections got worse.

“;While we are sensitive to that issue, I don't think it can be totally disregarded,”; Kawamura said.

The budget hearings continue through Jan. 22, the day after the 2009 session opens.