IN 1984, upstart presidential candidate Gary Hart was posting surprisingly strong numbers in the early Democratic primaries and caucuses and was threatening to knock the heavily favored Walter Mondale out of the race before the campaign turned west. Question for Lingle:
Where's the beef?The veteran Mondale stopped him in his tracks with one question: "Where's the beef?"
With those three words borrowed from a hamburger commercial, Mondale hit on a nagging concern voters had about Hart -- that his "new ideas" were more style than substance. Suddenly on the defensive, Hart failed to give solid form to his ideas. His campaign fizzled.
Maui Mayor Linda Lingle is vulnerable to the "where's the beef" question in her campaign against Gov. Ben Cayetano unless she can better define herself to voters who know little about her.
This struck me when a student journalist working on a story about the governor's race sought my help.
"How do I find out what Lingle stands for?" the student asked. "I've looked at her Web site and some of her campaign literature. All it says is that she thinks she's a good manager, she's held this office and that, she belongs to this organization and that, she comes from a good family. In the newspapers, she's criticizing Cayetano for causing this problem and that problem. But what does she really stand for? I don't see it anywhere."
I follow politics closely. I spent an hour with Lingle at a question-and-answer session for Star-Bulletin editors. And I couldn't answer the student's question.
Frank Fasi already is pounding Lingle on vision and experience in the Republican primary. If she fails to respond to his attacks well, she'll go into the general election against Cayetano a weakened candidate. You can bet the governor will be asking about the location of the sirloin early and often.
Lingle would make a deadly mistake to think her big early lead in public approval ratings has much to do with her. It's based almost entirely on frustration with the bad economy that has dogged Cayetano. Certainly voters have formed a favorable first impression of the Maui mayor, but first impressions can be fleeting.
Voters will be looking more closely at Lingle's ideas and record as the election approaches and she had better send them away with a clear picture of what she stands for.
Cayetano will give voters a clear view of what he thinks the Republicans stand for. He'll spend a lot of money pointing out his own real accomplishments in difficult times. The Democratic Party has just begun its loyalty appeal to party members who are giving Lingle a look.
AT the same time, Cayetano would make a deadly mistake to discount Lingle's early lead. Democrats who cluck that the governor overcame a similar Pat Saiki lead in 1994 miss the point. That was a three-way race with Frank Fasi's third-party campaign splitting the opposition between him and Saiki. More people voted against Cayetano than for him. A two-way race may well have ended differently.
The governor is in trouble. A sour economy and a fed-up electorate make incumbents in all races vulnerable. And if Cayetano didn't have enough problems, Republican candidates will probably benefit from increased turnout by voters seeking to pass the constitutional amendment blocking same-sex marriage.
But Cayetano is a fighter who knows how to win elections. He'll tenaciously pick apart any weaknesses Lingle leaves exposed. She's passed her early tests nicely, but they were just pop quizzes compared to the tough mid-term and final exams yet to come.
David Shapiro is managing editor of the Star-Bulletin.
He can be reached by e-mail at editor@starbulletin.com.
Previous Volcanic Ash columns