COURTESY HAWAIIAN VOLCANO OBSERVATORY The threat of lava from Kilauea Volcano overrunning a road into Puna, albeit remote, has officials preparing alternate routes.

Going with the flow

Officials consider the impact of lava on a road into Puna

Hawaii County officials are planning for the possibility, as yet remote, that lava from Kilauea Volcano will cross Highway 130, cutting off access to a number of Puna communities.

"I'm trying not to freak out," said County Councilwoman Emily Naeole, whose Makuu Hawaiian Homes residence stands in a possible lava path.

Right now the flows, 12 miles from the highway, consist of chunky aa, which moves slowly, but the possibility remains that they could turn to more fluid and fast-moving pahoehoe.

"Kilauea Volcano has never had a long-lived continuous eruption from a single vent that produced only aa flows," says volcano scientist Jim Kauahikaua.

If the road is cut, one alternative would be to bulldoze a connection to Chain of Craters Road in Hawaii Volcanoes National Park, which would make the Puna-Hilo commute 125 miles, up from 36.

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The possibility that some homes in lower Puna south of Hilo could be destroyed is a concern, but thousands more could be physically and economically cut off from the rest of the island if lava flows stretch 12 miles to Highway 130, the only road out of the area. Four miles below there, lava would reach the sea.

"I'm trying not to freak out," said County Councilwoman Emily Naeole, whose Makuu Hawaiian Homes residence stands in a possible lava path.

"There's a huge economic effect should the road get cut," said county Civil Defense head Troy Kindred.

The worries arise from a change in July. Instead of heading south to the ocean, flows switched to the northeast, uphill from communities.

On Aug. 23, Mayor Harry Kim publicly declared there was no immediate danger. But on Aug. 31, Jim Kauahikaua at the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory issued a report with a longer view.

If current, short-distance aa lava changes to more fluid pahoehoe, flows could travel much farther, Kauahikaua wrote.

"Kilauea Volcano has never had a long-lived continuous eruption from a single vent that produced only aa flows," he wrote.

Kauahikaua's report includes a computer simulation showing where streams of water would form with enough rain. A study of Mauna Loa's 1984 eruption shows that water streams are a good indicator of the initial path of lava streams, Kauahikaua wrote.

His map shows streams probably missing Pahoa, possibly missing other communities, but cutting Highway 130 if they continue long enough.

A lava flow would be slow, giving plenty of time to evacuate. But at least 10,000 people living in a 50-square-mile area around Pahoa would have to decide to stay at their homes in Puna or near their jobs in Hilo.

Most people are not worried, said Hawaiian Beaches community leader Fred Blas.

But Puna blogger Hunter Bishop said, "I think there's a lot of concern just fermenting, just building."

Councilwoman Naeole was frustrated by not being able to meet Mayor Kim, for 24 years the county's Civil Defense director, about creating alternate roads. "I took notice; you just need to be pushy," she said.

Bishop wrote in his blog, "It's amazing that the Civil Defense mayor has to be prodded about this, an impending natural disaster that is currently the most pressing issue in Puna."

Kim was stung, saying he was the one who ordered agencies to prepare contingency plans. But he avoided talking about the contingencies. "There are so many 'what ifs,' it's very difficult to answer (specific possibilities)," he said.

Civil Defense head Kindred does not think people will evacuate if there is no direct threat. "I think we have a nice, wonderful, vibrant community that would choose to live there despite what happens," he said.

But that might be economically impossible, even if a link were bulldozed to the Chain of Craters Road in Hawaii Volcanoes National Park.

A round trip from Pahoa to Hilo via the park would jump to 125 miles from the present 36 miles. Naeole's weekly gasoline bill could go from $80 to $280. Every Puna commuter though the park would face increased gas costs.

Trucks carrying food and gasoline to Pahoa would have to go through the park. Superintendent Cindy Orlando could not be reached for comment on increased traffic.

Bob Williams of the Hawaii Island Chamber of Commerce said the economic effects would depend on how big a lava flow took place and how long it lasted.

Lava might never reach Highway 130; or, like lava's destruction of Kalapana in 1990 following the first eruption in 1983, years might pass before destruction arrived.