Hawaii's oil habit has no end in sight

Without a policy shift, analysts see long-term reliance on fossil fuels

With no policies in place to spur investment or incentives to promote efficiency, the state's reliance on imported fossil fuels for its energy needs would only show a modest decline by 2020, according to analysts helping the state plan its energy future.

"We'd basically be a little better than the status quo we are today," said Kyle Datta, senior director for research and consulting at the Rocky Mountain Institute, a Snowmass, Colo.-based nonprofit energy policy analysis group.

The scenario is based on an economic model that assumes oil prices remain relatively consistent during the next 14 years.

It is one of two scenarios that institute analysts have examined as they work on implementing the broad package of energy bills passed into law this year.

An update on the state's strategic energy strategy was presented at the state Capitol yesterday. It was the second of four planned public meetings.

Datta said the analysis phase of the strategy is about halfway complete. Another public meeting is scheduled for December before the institute begins formulating policies for lawmakers to consider in the 2007 legislative session.

Lawmakers in attendance at yesterday's session included House Energy Chairwoman Hermina Morita (D, Hanalei-Kapaa) and her Senate counterpart, Sen. J. Kalani English (D, East Maui-Lanai-Molokai).

English said lawmakers plan to meet closely with Rocky Mountain Institute officials as the session draws near.

"We're really looking at getting ahead of the drafting game to produce the bills before the session starts so we can start vetting them," he said.

Experts say Hawaii relies on foreign fossil fuels, such as oil and coal, for about 91 percent of its energy needs. The bipartisan package of energy proposals was adopted with the goal of reducing that dependence through conservation and development of alternative energy sources.

Datta yesterday presented two scenarios on how Hawaii's energy sector would react if no policies or incentives are adapted to prompt changes in the state's usage patterns.

The first scenario, which assumed oil prices remained relatively static, showed only a 6 percent drop in the reliance on fossil fuel imports.

Another scenario looked at what would happen if prices remained high, and oil supplies were constrained. In that case, the economic models showed a shift toward renewable energy, such as wind, wave and solar power, and new technologies such as flex-fuel vehicles.

Hawaii's reliance on imported fuels would be reduced by 10 percent in that case.

"It takes about a decade for all of this to happen in the absence of policies, but the system does shift," Datta said.

The Institute is still studying how the energy sector would react in the most likely scenario -- a cyclical shift in oil prices where they fluctuate over extended periods of time.

Those models are expected to be presented at the next energy strategy meeting.

"We have to have baselines," he said. "Then we can look at, if we change the rules (by implementing policies) what changes and how fast?"