[ OUR OPINION ]
Bush’s ‘political capital’
won’t pay Social Security
bills
|
He will need every bit of that capital to persuade an already edgy Congress to go along and to sell his idea of private retirement accounts to a public that looks askance at even tinkering with the entitlement program.
"I earned capital in the campaign, political capital, and now I intend to spend it," a heady Bush said this week in claiming the power of his popular vote.
The president also wants to rewrite the tax code, limit damage awards in malpractice suits and toughen education standards for high schools, while continuing the war in Iraq. But Social Security reform caps his to-do list and he intends to fast-track proposals to Congress when it reconvenes in January.
He'll need to move quickly. House Republicans, aware that Bush's return to the White House would be trailed closely by revisions to Social Security, are nervous about getting near what's been called "the third rail of politics," deadly to any politician who messes with it. While Bush won't have to face voters again, members of Congress will and, in their minds, the 2006 mid-term elections aren't very far away.
The president will find resistance not only from Democrats, but from fiscal conservatives in his own party who are worried enough about the current deficit and the escalating costs of the Iraq war without taking on a $1 trillion to $2 trillion revenue loss that Bush's plan for private accounts would precipitate.
Bush has yet to explain how, even with the huge deficit, there will be a way to pay full benefits to current and soon-to-be retirees if some of the payroll taxes that fund them are shifted to private accounts.
Without further borrowing, reducing future payouts or raising the age for retirement, this will be nearly impossible. It will be imperative that Bush face a fiscal reality for once in his presidency.
Further, he should not succumb to an ideological whim to "fix" Social Security without first separating the costs of entitlements from the costs of Medicare.
Administration reports warn that red ink covers Social Security, but misleadingly lump it in the health program. A Treasury Department study claims a $44 trillion shortfall. However, the fine print reveals that only 16 percent of that can be attributed to Social Security. Meanwhile, the Social Security system trustees estimate the fund to be solvent until 2042.
No one disputes that Social Security costs will rise as the baby boom generation ages. However, the problem might not be more retirees, but the increasing cost of their health care. This needs to be addressed in the context of any reform.
