DEAN SENSUI / DSENSUI@STARBULLETIN.COM
Cody Pascua, left, Kerrie Freitas, Jordan Pascua, Barbara Pascua and Reyna Pascua shopped at Waikele Premium Outlets yesterday. The center was open on Thanksgiving until 6 p.m.
Isle retailers
expect brisk
holiday salesEconomic growth is predicted
to translate into a profitable
season for shops
Oahu retailers are hoping their cash registers ring and hum merrily this holiday season.
"The economy is up, the unemployment rate is down, bankruptcies are down and people are spending," said Carol Pregill, president of the Hawaii Retail Merchants Association, which represents 2,000 storefronts on Oahu. "We should be poised to have a happy holiday, and for retailers that means a profitable one."
Nationwide, after three years of lackluster growth, the economy is making a sustainable recovery that forecasters have predicted will make this holiday season the best they have seen in years. The overall economy is expected to expand 4.5 percent next year, which would be the fastest annual growth pace in two decades. Economic growth is expected to translate into brisk holiday retail sales on the mainland and in Hawaii, with total holiday retail sales projected to grow 5.7 percent over last holiday, according to the National Retail Federation.
"There's good reason for retailers to be optimistic," said Randy Yeager, president and chief executive officer of Retail Strategies LLC in Honolulu. "The economy is doing well, and the construction segment has gotten a large boost."
While Hawaii merchants cannot pin an actual dollar amount on expected holiday sales, they say the likelihood of a profitable holiday season is high, judging from the recent influx of consumer traffic. Traditionally, merchants and economists like to watch consumer traffic trends on the Friday after Thanksgiving, dubbed Black Friday because it is a day retailers expect profits to be in the black, and the Saturday before Christmas, because sales on those days often set the pace for the rest of the year. And this year, Hawaii and mainland merchants are predicting record spending.
"Consumers have spent the last several years on an emotional and economic roller coaster," said Tracy Mullin, president and chief executive officer of the National Retail Federation. "Now, Americans appear to be ready to shop and ready to spend, just in time for the biggest shopping season of the year."
And by all accounts, Hawaii has everything in place to have a great shopping season, too. The state's economic outlook looks as bright as Honolulu Hale's holiday lights. First Hawaiian Bank's chief economist, Leroy Laney, said economic indicators in Hawaii performed much stronger than the nation as a whole and that forecasted growth will stay strong into 2004.
A construction boom is changing the face of Hawaii as lowered interest rates have made building more affordable. Businesses are creating jobs and people are getting hired. They're spending money -- and they're buying homes and cars. They're also filing fewer bankruptcies and whipping out their credit cards again, he said.
"Hawaii has one of the healthiest economies in the nation," Laney said.
Because of the positive economic outlook, shops like Maui Divers Jewelry expect to see strong local spending.
"My view on the economy is that it's strong and will continue to be so," said Bob Taylor, president and CEO. "We're already having a record year."
Taylor said he expects to see increased sales at the Hilo Hattie Store in Ala Moana Center and at the Mall at Pearl Harbor.
When the economy is good, retail sales on the day after Thanksgiving and the first Saturday after Christmas should be brisk, said Robin Boolukos, leasing agent for the Town Center of Mililani. Boolukos said the center's 85 tenants, including Wal-Mart, Longs and Price Busters, are expecting traffic will continue to pick up through the holidays.
"Our merchants are very excited, and all indications show the center is already superbusy and is getting progressively busier," Boolukos said.
Holiday shopping trends on Oahu and the rest of the state help predict economic growth. Strong holiday sales figures often represent rising consumer confidence and growth. Holiday retail sales account for as much as 25 percent to 40 percent of the total annual revenues for retail sales, Pregill said.
"All of our retailers are very dependent on holiday sales," she said. "This is the time of year that I don't have much contact with them because they are just too busy."
Traffic at Ala Moana Center has been steady, and merchants already have reported about a 5 percent increase in shoppers, said Sharon James, regional vice president of marketing for the 240-tenant center.
"It had already started to pick up in September and October," James said. "I think consumers are definitely feeling more secure."
