The Rising East
The question of the hour: Will President Bush order a ground invasion of Afghanistan after more than a month of bombing, the insertion of Special Forces advisers and target spotters, and a round of in-and-out commando raids? Ground invasion
of Afghanistan awaits
answers to key questionsThe evidence trickling out of Washington says there is a good possibility but that critical decisions have yet to be made. It may even be more a question of when than whether. And there is always the chance that a planned invasion could be called off by a sudden favorable turn of events.
The clues begin with Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, who returned last week from a swift journey to Russia, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Pakistan and India during which he discussed future operations with those favoring U.S. action in their neighborhood. The last time he made such a trip was just before the bombing began on Oct. 7.
The secretary was effusive about the support of Tajikistan and sent an advance team to look at bases at Kulyab, Khojand and Turgan-Tiube, north of the Afghan border. The bases would be added to the base at Khanabad in Uzbekistan, where 1,000 soldiers from the 10th Mountain Dvision are posted, also north of Afghanistan, and bases the United States has quietly occupied in Pakistan to the south.
Then, the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, Gen. Richard Myers, said on a television news show: "We're going to fight right through the winter. The winter is not going to stop us from doing what we have to do." The United States has deployed about 50,000 service men and women to the region over the last two months.
Afghanistan's snowy winter has been seen as a obstacle to ground operations. Gen. Peter Pace, the Marine who is the vice chairman of the JCS, brushed that aside, telling Pentagon reporters: "U.S. forces operate extremely well in a cold-weather environment." Some cold weather, he said, is "advantageous to the kinds of sensors that we use."
Behind this, Americans have said they are willing to see ground forces fight in Afghanistan even if it means casualties. A recent New York Times survey reported that 61 percent of those polled said they would accept losses of several thousand soldiers.
A topic of international debate has been whether the United States should declare a cease fire during Ramadan, the Muslim month of fasting that begins on Nov. 16. Rumsfeld has ruled that out, leaving open the possibility that U.S. forces could begin a ground operations during Ramadan.
History is replete with instances in which assaults were launched on holidays. Japan attacked Pearl Harbor on a Sunday morning in 1941. North Vietnam mounted the Tet offensive during the lunar new year of 1968. Egypt and Syria attacked Israel on Yom Kippur, the Jewish holy day, in 1973.
Against that possibility, however, would be the need for a sizeable buildup. Getting ground forces into place during the Gulf War took six months in 1990. As in that conflict, there would be little surprise because the 82nd Airborne or a Marine division could not be moved without the world knowing it.
Michael Noonan, a researcher at the Foreign Policy Research Institute in Philadelphia, has proposed a scenario in which U.S. forces seized two critical cities in Afghanistan but did not try to occupy the entire country. He pointed to:
>> Kandahar, the political base of the Taliban regime in southern Afghanistan and home of Mullah Muhammed Omar, spiritual leader of the Taliban. Seizing this city would undermine the Taliban's "misconception that Americans are a feckless and weak enemy," Noonan asserted in a recent paper, and would provide a forward site for U.S. forces.
>> Mazar-e Sharif, which appears to have fallen to anti-Taliban forces in the north. That may give the United States access to a large airfield built by the Soviet Union and to a railhead leading to Termiz in Uzbekistan.
This strategy, Noonan argued, would allow the United States to avoid ground operations in the mountains but would provide forward operating bases for Rangers and Special Forces to conduct operations throughout the country.
"An additional benefit," Noonan said, "would be to coordinate and provide aid to displaced Afghans and show them that Taliban propaganda is patently false."
Richard Halloran is editorial director of the Star-Bulletin.
He can be reached by e-mail at rhalloran@starbulletin.com
